Key Takeaways
- CIBC cut its Vistra price target to $175 from $181 on Nov. 9. That’s its second cut in two weeks, and the stock has lost 29% over the past year.
- The selloff came from soft Texas power prices and the politics around data centers. Most of Vistra’s 2027 earnings are already locked in by hedges.
- Vistra trades at 14x forward earnings, just under its five-year average. CIBC’s target implies about 19x.
- CIBC’s bullish call holds up, but the higher multiple its target needs will likely have to wait until Texas sets its data center rules.
Vistra (VST) has lost 29% over the past year, and CIBC just cut its price target for the second time in two weeks. On Nov. 9, the firm trimmed its target to $175 from $181 and kept its Outperformer rating, which still leaves 30% upside.
Blame Texas, mostly
Texas power prices have been soft all year. On Aug. 3, Gov. Greg Abbott froze approvals for data centers seeking grid connections until ERCOT finishes an audit. Days later, management put ERCOT wholesale prices at $30 per MWh for 2026 so far, flat with 2025, and the CFO said 2027 adjusted EBITDA was trending toward the low end of its $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion range.
Then came last week’s midterms. Gina Hinojosa, who pledged a moratorium on new data centers, won the race for Texas governor and takes office in January. KeyBanc downgraded Vistra to Sector Weight on Nov. 4 and dropped its price target.
CIBC calls it noise
CIBC thinks Vistra is trading on near-term noise. This week’s trim came after a bigger cut on Oct. 28, to $181 from $201. Scotiabank cut its own target to $169 from $189 on Nov. 9, and the Street’s average target has been falling since March:
It’s down to $202 from $234, and 23 analysts cover the stock. CIBC’s $175 sits 14% below it, so the firm is asking for less than most of its peers.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Vistra. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Vistra, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Vistra’s Analyst Ratings
Does $175 add up?
The business gave CIBC some cover on Nov. 6. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose more than 50% to a record $2.38 billion. Vistra’s first 2027 guidance, $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, includes the Cogentrix plants and Meta’s contract at the Perry nuclear plant. Analysts expect normalized EPS to roughly double from 2025 to 2027:
Vistra had hedged about 98% of its expected 2027 output by Oct. 30, so most of next year’s earnings are already locked in.
Yet the stock trades at 14x forward earnings, just under its five-year average of 15x:
CIBC’s $175 works out to about 19x the earnings analysts expect over the next twelve months. That’s well above the average, though far below the 37x of August 2025. The multiple it needs falls as 2027’s higher estimates move into that twelve-month window.
Priced for the policy fight
CEO Jim Burke blamed the slide in Texas power prices partly on the state’s data center audit and permitting pause. On the third-quarter call he said, “We do not see this as a long-term impact.” Even so, Vistra had hedged only about 78% of its expected 2028 output. A longer freeze under Hinojosa would hit just as the hedges thin out.
At its usual multiple, Vistra isn’t priced for anything going right in Texas. CIBC’s $175 needs investors to pay up again, and I’d expect that to happen once the state spells out its data center rules. Vistra’s fourth-quarter report in late February will show how much more of 2028 it has locked in.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
