Key Stats for Uber Stock
- Current Price: $68.85 (June 12, 2026 close)
- Target Price (Mid): ~$151
- Street Target: ~$104
- Potential Total Return: ~119% (through 12/31/30)
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
- Max Drawdown: 31.46% on June 10, 2026
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What Happened?
Uber Technologies (UBER) is beating its own guidance while its stock trades like something is breaking. Shares closed at $68.85 on June 12, 2026, barely above the 52-week low of $67.19 and down about 32% from a high near $102. Yet the business keeps compounding. That gap is the story for Uber stock in 2026.
The disagreement is real. Bulls see a platform generating nearly $10 billion in annual free cash flow and 21%+ gross bookings growth for three straight quarters. Bears see a richly priced compounder facing two open questions: whether robotaxis eventually compresses its take rate, and whether a multibillion-dollar pursuit of Delivery Hero signals a move away from disciplined capital returns. The market cannot price either with confidence, so it has been selling.
Uber’s new CFO walked into that tension at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on May 28, 2026. Balaji Krishnamurthy, promoted to CFO effective February 16, 2026, used the appearance to push back on the bear case.
The Delivery Hero question management answered first
The day before the conference, Uber raised its Delivery Hero stake to roughly 37%, buying out Aspex Management’s shares at just under €40 per share, per Bloomberg, citing a regulatory filing. The move stays below the threshold that triggers a mandatory offer under German law while giving Uber a seat at the table.
Investors worry a takeover would be a distracting use of capital while Uber also funds autonomous vehicles (cars that drive themselves, or “AVs”) and buys back stock. Krishnamurthy answered with a framework. Any deal must clear antitrust and integration cleanly and deliver “high confidence that we can drive a lot of accretion on an adjusted EPS basis because the alternative is that we can buy back our own stock.” Benchmarking M&A against repurchases signals discipline, not empire-building. He added that Uber’s cost base is “in the low 30s” euros, below what it just paid, and that any deal “would have to be at a seller expectation that’s reasonable.”
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Why the CFO thinks the AV fear is “upside down”
The deeper worry is structural: if AVs drive ride prices down, do Uber’s economics collapse? Krishnamurthy called that “a little bit upside down.” Prices fall only when hardware and software get cheap enough to lower per-trip costs, and a lower price expands the market. He pointed to Uber’s own history: ridesharing’s addressable market proved far larger than taxi-medallion math implied because Uber came out cheaper than taxis. His conclusion: even at lower per-trip margins, “the gross profit pool is significantly larger.”
He was measured on timing. The average UberX trip costs about $2 per mile, and AVs must get below that to undercut Uber, which is not the near-term reality. Over five years, he expects AVs to stay “relatively immaterial” against Uber’s roughly 15 billion annual trips, with the real inflection between years five and ten. That cuts against bulls wanting AV revenue now and bears fearing disruption now.
A business that keeps beating while the stock falls
The operating record is hard to argue with. For fiscal 2025, Uber reported $52.0 billion in revenue, up 18.3%, with Mobility at $29.7 billion and Delivery at $17.2 billion. In Q1 2026, reported May 6, gross bookings grew 25% to $53.7 billion, GAAP income from operations rose 57% to $1.9 billion, and non-GAAP EPS climbed 44% to $0.72, beating TIKR’s ~$0.69 consensus. Uber One reached 50 million members.
The reaction told 2026’s real story: despite the beat, shares fell 3.08% on the report. The cause is estimate compression. TIKR now models around $3.33 in 2026 normalized EPS, down sharply from a year ago. Lowered profit expectations, not a broken business, drove most of the decline.
The valuation reflects that pessimism. Uber trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA near 12x against forward EBITDA growth around 25%, with LTM net debt to EBITDA of just 0.33x. A platform compounding EBITDA at that rate, with an investment-grade balance sheet, rarely trades this close to its own 52-week low. Bears are right that AV and M&A add uncertainty. Bulls are right that the price already embeds heavy caution.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Target price: ~$151 by year-end 2030
- Potential total return: ~119%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% per year from the current $68.85
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- Revenue drivers: continued Mobility growth, helped by U.S. reacceleration as insurance-cost pressure eases, and Delivery growth across underpenetrated international and grocery/retail markets.
- Margin driver: operating leverage from fixed-cost discipline and AI-driven productivity.
- Primary risk: AV economics compressing the take rate faster than the gross-profit pool expands, or a Delivery Hero deal that breaks the CFO’s accretion discipline.
- Upside: if bookings hold in the high teens and margins keep climbing, the path to around $151 looks reasonable.
- Downside: a botched large acquisition or an early AV price war would justify today’s caution
The model’s entry price of $68.85 matches the live market price, so no adjustment is needed.
Conclusion
Watch the next earnings report, due early August 2026, for one number: the Q2 gross bookings growth rate against management’s guided 18% to 22% (constant currency). A print at or above the high end, with continued margin expansion, confirms the selloff is sentiment, not substance. A miss, or signs that Delivery Hero spending is denting the buyback or margins, validates the bears. The data answers in about seven weeks. Until then, Uber is a compounder priced like a problem.
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Should You Invest in Uber?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
