Key Takeaways
- Uber stock jumped 5% today after third-quarter non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 edged past estimates and Gross Bookings grew 20%.
- Mobility revenue fell 2% on a driver shortage abroad, which raises a question for Lyft. Delivery revenue grew 23%, the same pace as DoorDash without Deliveroo.
- Uber expects about 700 fully driverless vehicles on its network by year-end.
- Uber still trades below its three-year average forward P/E, so I think the rally has room to run.
Uber Technologies (UBER) stock is up 5% today after its third-quarter earnings beat. Non-GAAP EPS rose 35% to $0.88, a penny ahead of the $0.87 consensus, and Gross Bookings grew 20% to $59.8 billion.
Its Delivery growth matches what DoorDash (DASH) reported last week, and its driver shortage is a question for Lyft (LYFT) ahead of its own report.
The outlook is better than it looks
Uber guided for fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS of $0.95 to $0.99, below Wall Street’s estimates. But add that range to the $2.40 it earned in the first nine months, and 2026 lands right around the $3.36 analysts expected going in.
Bookings are guided to grow another 18% to 22% in constant currency, so I don’t see much here that should pull those estimates down.
Mobility’s problem is drivers
Mobility revenue fell 2% to $7.5 billion even as Mobility bookings grew 18%, partly on business-model changes.
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said on the call that Mobility “came in below our expectations as a result of driver supply not keeping pace with strong consumer demand in several international markets.”
Robotaxis are the longer-term fix. “Our focus on autonomous is now on commercial execution,” Khosrowshahi said in the release, with about 700 fully driverless vehicles on Uber by year-end and over 2,000 in 2027.
TIKR tracks 50 analysts on Uber. How many say “Buy”?
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Delivery is the bright spot
Uber’s Delivery revenue grew 23%. DoorDash grew revenue 34% in its third quarter, or 23% without Deliveroo. When the two leaders grow at the same pace, demand for delivery itself is growing.
Lyft has no delivery business to lean on, and it reports later this week. It guided for third-quarter Gross Bookings growth of 15% to 19%, after 23% in the second quarter, and Freenow gives it its own exposure abroad. Are Lyft’s drivers as hard to find as Uber’s?
Cheap enough to clear the bar
Uber traded at 17x forward earnings before today’s jump, below its three-year average of about 25x. At today’s price it’s still only about 18x. For EPS growing 35%, that’s cheap.
A stock this cheap needed only a clean quarter, and Uber delivered one. Khosrowshahi said driver supply began to improve in October. If that holds, I think the rally has room to run. The next test comes later this month, when Zoox’s robotaxis launch on Uber in Las Vegas.
So what is Uber stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
