Key Stats for Texas Instruments Stock
- This Week Performance: -1.3%
- 52-Week Range: $140 to $231.3
- Current Price: $188.3
What Happened?
After four years of grinding through the deepest analog semiconductor downcycle in modern history, Texas Instruments (TXN) — the Dallas-based maker of the foundational chips that manage power and signals in everything from factory equipment to electric vehicles — posted free cash flow of $2.9 billion in 2025, a 96% jump from 2024, as its six-year, $4.6 billion-per-year capacity buildout finally crests and the stock sits at $188.29.
Texas Instruments agreed on February 4 to acquire Silicon Labs — a designer of low-power wireless connectivity chips used in smart meters, industrial automation, and medical devices — for $231 per share in cash, a 69% premium to Silicon Labs’ last unaffected price, valuing the deal at $7.5 billion and marking TI’s largest acquisition since National Semiconductor in 2011.
Data center revenue, the segment supplying power-management and signal-chain chips to AI server racks, grew 64% in 2025 to $1.5 billion and exited the year at a $450 million quarterly run rate after seven consecutive quarters of growth, lifting industrial, automotive, and data center combined to 75% of total revenue versus 43% in 2013.
CEO Haviv Ilan stated at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on March 4 that “we are seeing maybe a different change in industrial versus a year ago because the breadth of the growth in Q4,” tying the comment directly to industrial’s near-18% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 and the first above-seasonal Q1 guidance TI has issued in roughly fifteen years.
TI targets at least $8 of free cash flow per share in 2026 as depreciation peaks between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion, the Silicon Labs deal is expected to add more than $450 million in annual synergies by 2030, and the company’s Sherman, Texas fab — running ahead of schedule at high yields — positions TI to capture the 800-volt data center power architecture opportunity it demonstrated at NVIDIA GTC on March 16.
Wall Street’s Take on TXN Stock
The Silicon Labs acquisition — expected to add more than $450 million in annual synergies by 2030 — accelerates the FCF inflection already underway as TI’s six-year capacity buildout ends, pushing the forward earnings picture sharply higher than the current price implies.
TIKR estimates normalized EPS rises 15.5% to $6.46 in 2026 as CapEx drops toward $2 billion to $3 billion from $4.6 billion in 2025, a direct consequence of the Sherman and Lehi fabs moving into production rather than construction; the 2026E revenue estimate of $19.58 billion, up 10.8%, is grounded in data center’s seven-quarter growth streak, industrial’s first broad-based recovery signal in two years, and TI’s above-seasonal Q1 2026 guidance.
TI’s free cash flow margin is projected to surge 18.4 percentage points in a single year, from 14.7% in 2025 to 33.1% in 2026, a faster expansion rate than analog rival Analog Devices, which delivered an impressive Q1 2026 but holds FCF margins relatively flat at 38.3% in 2026E, already near its ceiling while TI is still climbing.
Twelve analysts rate TXN a buy or outperform, eighteen hold, and five underperform or sell, with a mean price target of $221.55 — implying 17.7% upside from $188.29 — as the majority awaits confirmation that industrial’s Q4 2025 recovery and the data center ramp are durable enough to justify the FCF expansion the model demands.
The spread between the Street’s low target of $160.00 and high of $270.00 maps directly onto two known binary outcomes: the low reflects a scenario where industrial stalls again and Silicon Labs faces China regulatory delay past the first half of 2027, while the high reflects full synergy capture and continued data center growth sustaining the 70%-plus year-over-year trajectory.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model prices TXN at $391.75 by December 2030 — a 108.1% total return at a 16.5% IRR — driven by a 9.7% revenue CAGR to $28.55 billion, net income margin expansion from 28.9% in 2025 to 34.9%, and EPS compounding from $5.59 to $12.57, all of which rest on the CapEx cycle ending and Silicon Labs synergies materializing on schedule.
The market prices TXN at $188.29 — below its December 2024 close of $187.51 despite FCF growing 73.8% in 2025 and another 148.7% projected in 2026, which means the stock has not moved while the free cash flow engine has fundamentally re-rated.
The Sherman fab running ahead of schedule at high yields, the Lehi 65-nanometer transition complete, and the 28-nanometer node entering production by year-end all confirm the TIKR model’s $6.47 billion FCF estimate for 2026; TIKR’s mid-case target is $391.75.
CEO Haviv Ilan confirmed at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 4 that industrial is “so far away from trend line” — a market still 25% below its 2022 peak — signaling the earnings recovery has not yet reached its natural ceiling.
China regulatory approval for the Silicon Labs deal, expected by the first half of 2027, is the single variable that breaks the TIKR model’s synergy timeline; a rejection or prolonged review collapses the $450 million annual synergy figure and forces a full debt-financed deal with no offsetting COGS benefit.
TI’s Q1 2026 earnings report is the first hard confirmation of whether industrial’s broad-based order improvement holds past Chinese New Year; watch for data center crossing 12% of total revenue and industrial sustaining double-digit year-over-year growth.
Should You Invest in Texas Instruments Incorporated?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up TXN stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track X alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze TXN stock on TIKR for Free →
