Key Stats for Texas Instruments Stock
- Current Price: $279.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$677
- Street Target: ~$324
- Potential Total Return: ~142%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Texas Instruments (TXN) has climbed about 60% in 2026, and for most of that run, the story was a simple demand rebound. On August 4, the company gave investors something more specific to hold onto. GE Appliances said it will source roughly one-third of the chips for its new Louisville laundry plant from Texas Instruments starting in 2027, a commitment that nearly doubles GE Appliances’ spending with the company.
GE chose Texas Instruments in part because it runs high-volume semiconductor fabs on U.S. soil, at a moment when supply chain security has become a boardroom priority. That is the advantage the market has been slow to price, and it is worth understanding before deciding whether a stock near $280 still has room to run.
Why a Washing Machine Contract Says Something About the Whole Company
The GE Appliances agreement is small next to Texas Instruments’ $19 billion in trailing revenue. Its value is what it confirms. GE runs a “Zero Distance” strategy built on shortening its supply chain, and it tied the decision to Texas Instruments’ domestic footprint, with chips coming from fabs in Sherman and Richardson, Texas, and Lehi, Utah. Production begins in 2027.
That is the same argument management made on the second-quarter earnings call, only from the customer’s side of the table. CEO Haviv Ilan described a market where TI’s inventory and capacity let it win business rivals cannot serve fast enough. “We are seeing examples, real-time examples of, hey, we are line down, please help us. And every time that happens, that’s an opportunity,” Ilan said. When a customer runs out of parts, the supplier that can ship becomes the supplier that keeps the design. A GE-sized commitment, negotiated years ahead of production, is the planned version of that same dynamic.
Texas Instruments plans to invest more than $60 billion across seven fabs in Texas and Utah, and the clean room space it built during the last downcycle now stands ready to absorb demand. Ilan called that readiness the difference between this cycle and the last one, when equipping a clean room took two to three years.
See historical and forward estimates for Texas Instruments stock (It’s free!) >>>
The Run Has Been Real, and So Has the Discomfort
Texas Instruments started 2026 near $173 and now trades around $280, and it touched a 52-week high of $334 in June before a sector-wide selloff pulled it back. The largest drawdown of the past year, 25.59% on November 20, 2025, is a reminder that even quality analog names trade with the cycle.
Two signals argue for caution. First, valuation. Shares change hands near 29 times next-twelve-month earnings, a premium to peers such as Analog Devices at about 28 times, Broadcom near 25 times, and Qualcomm at roughly 18 times. Texas Instruments has long earned a premium for its cash generation and end-market breadth, but at these levels, the market is paying for the recovery to keep compounding, not just to arrive. Second, insiders have been sellers, with roughly $89 million in stock sold over the prior three months and no reported purchases.
On the earnings call, management reported trailing free cash flow of $6.5 billion, a figure that includes $1.6 billion of CHIPS Act incentives, as capital spending moderates. Wall Street’s average price target sits around $324, roughly 16% above the current quote, with 16 Buys, 16 Holds, and only two Sells in TIKR’s latest tally.
See how Texas Instruments performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $279.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$677
- Potential Total Return: ~142%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Texas Instruments stock (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR’s mid-case model values Texas Instruments at around $677 by the end of 2030, implying roughly 142% total return, or about 22% annualized over the next 4.4 years. That is far more aggressive than Wall Street’s ~$324 target, and it sits well above TIKR’s own more conservative recent estimates, so treat it as a scenario built on stated assumptions rather than a forecast. It only holds if two things go right.
The first driver is revenue. The model assumes mid-case growth near 11% annually. Deals like the GE win feed that line directly: they add embedded-processing and connectivity content per unit, on top of the industrial recovery management says still sits below its 2022 peak. The second driver is margin, with net income margins expanding toward the mid-40% range as newer 300-millimeter capacity runs at higher utilization, the operating leverage management pointed to when it guided incremental gross margin fall-through of 70% to 85%.
That capacity build has to be paid for, and rising depreciation weighs on gross margin if revenue growth slows before the fabs fill. The bet worth making is that demand holds, and utilization climbs into that new capacity, which is where the operating leverage turns powerful. What would break it is an industrial cycle that stalls with the fabs half-full, leaving margins compressed and a premium multiple with nothing to support it.
Conclusion
The GE Appliances win is a preview of the metric that decides this thesis: whether TI’s capacity converts into share gains that outrun the cycle. The next checkpoint is the third-quarter report, expected in October, where management guided revenue of $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion. A print at or above the high end, with industrial and data center still growing sequentially, would confirm the demand is broad and the capacity is filling. A soft industrial number, after a 60% run and a premium multiple, would be the first sign the market got ahead of the fundamentals. Watch the top line in October, and watch whether more customers follow GE to TI’s U.S. fabs.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in Texas Instruments?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Texas Instruments, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Texas Instruments alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Texas Instruments on TIKR Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
