Tesla (TSLA) finally showed off the next-generation Roadster on Thursday night, October 15, at a SpaceX test site in McGregor, Texas. That’s nearly a decade after the 2017 prototype. Elon Musk said some versions will reach 60 mph in under one second and top 230 mph, helped by thrusters built with SpaceX.
The catch is the calendar. Tesla said production starts in 2028, eight years after the 2020 delivery date it first promised, and it gave no list price. What it did give was a reservation page: $50,000 for the “Performance” version and $250,000 for the “Thrust” version. A single-seat “Rocket” version is invite-only.
A Halo Car With a Small Revenue Line
Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein, quoted by Reuters, expects Tesla to sell roughly 2,000 Roadsters a year and calls it Tesla’s new halo car. Musk himself called the project a “small potato situation” back in 2023.
Run the numbers generously. If all 2,000 cars sold for $250,000, the Thrust reservation amount, that’s $500 million a year. Tesla’s automotive revenue was $69.53 billion in 2025, so the Roadster would add about 0.7%. That’s a rounding error.
That automotive line declined in 2024 and 2025, but returned to growth in the first half of 2026. It fell from $82.42 billion in 2023 to $77.07 billion in 2024, then to $69.53 billion in 2025, a 16% drop in two years. It then rose 23% year over year in the second quarter and 20% in the first half. Third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 were down about 2% from a year earlier, even though they beat estimates, so the recovery isn’t locked in yet. A supercar arriving in 2028 won’t decide it either way.
Tesla Stock Isn’t Priced on Cars
Tesla stock trades at about 186x next-12-month normalized earnings, roughly 73% above its five-year average of 108x. The multiple bottomed near 20x in early 2023 and peaked at 243x around the turn of this year.
Paying that much for a car business that has only just returned to growth makes sense only if investors are buying something else. Tesla’s latest guidance calls for more than $25 billion in capital expenditure this year. That covers AI infrastructure, manufacturing expansion, company-operated AI-enabled assets, and its retail, service and charging footprint. The multiple reflects expectations for autonomy and robotics. The Roadster’s SpaceX thrusters make for a great demo, but they don’t settle that debate.
The Bottom Line on Tesla Stock
The Roadster is a marketing event with a deposit attached. Tesla collects reservation money now for a car it only targets for production in 2028.
For shareholders, the numbers that matter are in the third-quarter report, scheduled for October 21: whether automotive revenue keeps its first-half growth, and whether margins hold while spending climbs. At 186x forward earnings, the stock has little room for that recovery to stall, with or without a flying Roadster.
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