Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) has been under pressure. The stock trades near $86/share, down about 9% in the past year as rising costs and softer sales trends weighed on results. Margins have narrowed, international demand has been uneven, and competition has intensified. Still, Starbucks’ strong global brand and ongoing efficiency efforts keep analysts cautiously optimistic about a recovery.
Recently, Starbucks has taken bolder steps to regain momentum. The company announced a dividend increase, signaling confidence in its cash flow, while also rolling out its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround plan aimed at faster service, automation, and refreshed stores. Management has also pushed through a restructuring with U.S. store closures and job cuts to streamline operations. On top of this, investors are closely watching China, where even a gradual recovery could provide meaningful upside given the country’s importance to Starbucks’ long-term growth.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Starbucks could trade by 2027. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to get a sense of the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Starbucks trades near $86/share today. The average analyst price target is $98/share, which implies about 14% upside over the next year. Forecasts span a wide range, showing mixed sentiment:
- High estimate: ~$115/share
- Low estimate: ~$73/share
- Median target: ~$99/share
- Ratings: mix of Buys, Holds, and a few Sells
Analysts see some potential for gains, but conviction is limited given the broad spread between high and low targets. For investors, this means Starbucks may offer modest upside, but the stock is not viewed as a bargain at current levels.
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Starbucks: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals suggest gradual progress rather than rapid growth:
- Revenue projected to grow ~5% annually through FY2027
- Operating margin expected to reach ~12%
- Shares trade at ~35x forward earnings, above the long-term average
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 27.5x forward P/E suggests ~$100/share by FY2027
- That implies ~15% upside, or about 7.4% annualized returns
These projections point to steady compounding but not dramatic expansion. For investors, Starbucks looks like a stable long-term holding supported by dividends and predictable growth, rather than a high-upside growth play.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Starbucks continues to lean on the strength of its brand and its large, loyal customer base. The rewards program and mobile app are driving higher ticket sizes and repeat purchases, while seasonal product launches and menu innovations help keep demand steady.
China also remains a major opportunity. A recovery in that market could provide meaningful support to growth, while ongoing investments in efficiency upgrades should improve operations over time. These factors help explain why many bulls view Starbucks as a steady compounder with strong long-term potential.
Bear Case: Valuation and Competition
The concern is valuation. Starbucks trades at a premium multiple for its growth profile, leaving little room for disappointment. Rising labor costs, inflationary pressures, and slower traffic trends could limit its ability to expand margins.
Competition also remains fierce, especially in international markets where local chains are competing aggressively on price. If Starbucks fails to reignite growth or manage costs effectively, investors could see limited upside from current levels.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Starbucks Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 27.5x forward P/E suggests Starbucks could trade near ~$100/share by FY2027. That represents about 15% upside from today’s price, or 7.4% annualized returns.
This outlook assumes modest revenue growth and margin improvement. For investors, Starbucks appears positioned as a dependable dividend payer and long-term compounder. While the stock offers stability and steady returns, significant upside would likely require a faster recovery in China or stronger operational execution than currently expected.
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