Key Takeaways
- SpaceX fell 4% today after Democrats won both houses of Congress and Texas elected a governor who wants a data center moratorium.
- The drop looks justified: SpaceX’s AI segment brought in over half of its third-quarter revenue, so a slower US data center build hits its growth.
- Musk’s answer is data centers in space, but even bullish models don’t see them leading revenue until 2030 or later.
- Tesla and IREN face versions of the same risk, and IREN reports tomorrow.
SpaceX (SPCX) fell 4% today after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate.
Texas mattered most: Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s race on a promise of an immediate moratorium on data centers. The sweep also hit Tesla (TSLA), down 5% and on the other side of a proposed merger with SpaceX, and IREN (IREN), down 6% with AI campuses in the state.
Musk’s reply, in an X post overnight: “Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.”
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Over half the revenue is AI now
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment, home to its AI compute rentals, brought in $7.56 billion of the third quarter’s $14.6 billion of revenue. According to Wells Fargo, 27% of planned US data center gigawatts are in Texas. SpaceX has projects there too.
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $48.9 billion this year to $336 billion in 2028:
A Texas moratorium could push those numbers lower.
And orbital data centers are years from mattering. Even Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire, whose model puts SpaceX’s 2028 revenue at more than twice consensus, says orbital compute is “just not the dominant revenue line item until 2030 or 2031.”
Tesla is exposed twice over. Besides the merger, which still has no terms, it sells Megapacks into data centers. Tesla said in its third-quarter release that it expects “rising data center demand to continue driving demand for our products.” Its operating income fell 56% to $718 million in the quarter. Does a slower Texas build dent its record storage backlog?
IREN’s exposure is more direct. Its Microsoft deployments at Childress and its next campus at Sweetwater are both in Texas, and it guides fiscal 2027 capex of $25 billion to $30 billion. When it reports tomorrow, listen for whether its Texas timelines have moved.
The discount is earned, for now
I think investors are right to mark SpaceX down. Its growth depends on building data centers fast.
Of course, the moratorium is still a campaign promise. Its fourth-quarter report in early 2027 will show whether the build stayed on track.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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