Key Takeaways
- Shopify shares fell 3% today after ATB Cormark downgraded the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform, with a C$234 price target.
- The downgrade follows a 56% run in three months, driven by AI shopping partnerships, including Meta’s Muse deal.
- Analysts expect Shopify’s earnings per share to more than double from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, and the stock’s price already counts on much of that.
- The business is strong, and the next test is Shopify’s third-quarter report in early November.
Shopify (SHOP) shares fell 3% today after ATB Cormark downgraded the stock before the open. The firm moved it to Sector Perform from Outperform, with a C$234 price target on its Toronto-listed shares.
Coming into today, Shopify stock was up 56% in the past three months (through Wednesday’s close). So one firm stepping to the sidelines isn’t much of a shock. It didn’t help that tech stocks sold off across the board today, either.
AI shopping drove the run
The run has had plenty behind it. Shopify has AI shopping partnerships with OpenAI, Google, Microsoft and Meta, and the stock jumped 33% in a month on Meta’s Muse deal.
The results back it up, too. In the second quarter of 2026, AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores tripled from a year earlier. Gross merchandise volume rose 32% to about $116 billion, Shopify’s fifth straight quarter of growth above 30%.
And analysts expect earnings to keep compounding. The consensus has normalized EPS climbing from $1.43 in fiscal 2025 to $3.32 by fiscal 2028, which more than doubles it in three years…
A ratings change doesn’t touch the business, so I wouldn’t expect today’s news to move these estimates.
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on Shopify. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Shopify, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Shopify’s Analyst Ratings
The price already counts on a lot
But Shopify’s price already holds much of that good news. The stock traded at about 83x forward earnings at Wednesday’s close, and closer to 80x after today’s drop. Even on analysts’ fiscal 2028 estimate, it trades at more than 50x earnings.
At that price, earnings need to keep growing about 30% a year through 2028, and keep going after that.
My take: Shopify’s business has rarely looked better, but at this price the stock needs everything to keep going right. ATB’s move to the sidelines looks reasonable to me.
The next test is Shopify’s third-quarter report in early November. If AI orders keep climbing the way they did in the second quarter, those estimates could still prove too low.
So what is Shopify stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Shopify could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
