Key Takeaways
- Palantir stock rose 7% in the past month as five Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and Barclays, set targets of $230 to $265, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2%.
- A 7% software-wide drop on Oct. 16 had no Palantir news behind it, and the stock won it all back within three sessions as software rallied, with ServiceNow and Datadog up about 11% this month too.
- The Street’s average target of $206 is now only about 2% above the stock, and its forward P/E sits around its five-year average of 103x.
- Third-quarter results on Nov. 2 need to show U.S. commercial growth well above the 134% guide, so holding makes more sense than adding before then.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up 7% in the past month, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%.
Wall Street did much of the lifting, and a 7% software rout mid-month didn’t stick. But the stock now sits almost right on the Street’s average price target.
Most of the gain came in early October. Within about two days, Daniel Ives’s Yorkville Ives & Co started coverage at Buy with a $250 target, Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy at $230, and Barclays started at Buy with a $265 target, the Street’s highest.
On Oct. 9, Palantir jumped 5.2% to a record close of $209.05, its first since November 2025.
On Oct. 12, Baird raised its target to $250 from $200. It pointed to how far Palantir can cut the cost of running AI (95% in one defense contractor’s use case). Mizuho went to $245 from $215 on Oct. 15. Only Phillip Securities went the other way, cutting the stock to Hold.
A 7% drop that had nothing to do with Palantir
Then came Oct. 16. Palantir fell 7.2% as investors dumped software over worries about AI valuations. The software ETF IGV fell nearly 5%.
There was no Palantir news, but the drop still left the stock 11% below its record, in a correction.
And nothing in the business had changed. Q2 brought a record 220 deals worth $1 million or more, 73 of them over $10 million, and 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue.
TIKR tracks 32 analysts on Palantir. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Palantir, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Palantir’s Analyst Ratings
Knox, then a software bounce
It took three sessions to win it all back. On Oct. 19, Palantir rose 4.4% after Knox Systems announced a partnership that gives software makers a route into FedRAMP and IL5 federal clouds through Palantir’s accreditations. No terms were disclosed, and the Nasdaq 100 rose nearly 2% that day.
On Oct. 21, Palantir added 4.7% in a broad software rally, again with no news of its own. Datadog (DDOG) and ServiceNow (NOW) rose with it.
Over the month, ServiceNow is up 11.2% and Datadog 11.4%, a touch more than Palantir. So a good part of Palantir’s gain came from software as a whole.
The Street has caught up
All those target raises have pulled the Street’s average up to the stock. The consensus target has climbed from $154 a year ago to $206…
…only about 2% above Wednesday’s close.
The multiple is back to normal for Palantir, which still means rich. It traded at 102x forward earnings on Tuesday, right at its five-year average of 103x and far below the 270x it hit in October 2025…
…and Wednesday’s gain pushed it a bit above that average.
Q3 has a high bar to clear
So more upside has to come from the business. Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, and guided to revenue of $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion, about 12% more than Q2’s $1.94 billion. Analysts expect revenue to nearly double this year, to $8.22 billion, and to reach $17.9 billion by 2028…
Nothing this month gives analysts a reason to change those numbers before the report.
The number to watch is U.S. commercial growth: 149% in Q2, against management’s full-year guide of at least 134%. Another quarter near 149%, with a new record count of $10 million deals, would give analysts reason to push targets toward Barclays’s $265. A slide toward 134% would make a 100x multiple hard to defend.
My take: I’d hold. I wouldn’t sell a business that’s nearly doubling its revenue, but I wouldn’t add at the Street’s own target and 100x earnings either, when a day with no news can knock 7% off the stock. Of course, a big beat on Nov. 2 could send targets higher fast, and then adding would make more sense.
So what is Palantir stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
