Key Takeaways
- Oklo shares jumped 22.7% after a third-quarter loss of $0.22 a share beat the $0.27 estimate and a new manufacturing pact landed.
- The U.S. Forged Rings deal reserves capacity equal to 27 Aurora modules, with first deliveries in 2030, but a binding power contract still hasn’t been signed.
- NuScale Power rose 16.3% too, and Oklo’s $1.9 billion enterprise value shows how little the market assigns to its reactors.
- Analysts expect about $6.3 billion of free cash flow to go out through 2030, so the March 17 report’s cost and share count updates matter most.
Oklo (OKLO) just had its best day in months. Shares closed up 22.7% at $24 on Friday after third-quarter results and a new manufacturing pact both landed before the open.
The loss came in at $0.22 a share, narrower than the $0.27 analysts expected. And Oklo reserved factory capacity equal to 27 Aurora modules, for a reactor fleet that still has no signed buyer.
NuScale Power (SMR) rallied 16.3% the same day on its own smaller-than-feared loss. Both stocks were sold hard into the election, and both now trade not far above the cash on their balance sheets.
So the bounce comes off a deep hole. Even after Friday, Oklo sits 80% below its 52-week high of $117.
Losing less, holding more
The quarter itself was tidy:
- Revenue: $1.86 million, against a $1.01 million consensus
- Net loss: $41.7 million, wider than $29.7 million a year earlier
- Cash and marketable securities: $3.13 billion at Sept. 30, up from $3.0 billion at June 30
Interest on that cash did a lot of the work. The operating loss was $71.0 million, a touch below the second quarter’s $73.2 million, and Oklo kept its 2026 guidance for $400 million to $500 million of capital spending.
Cash rose because Oklo finished selling stock under its May program. Then on Sept. 11 it signed a new $1 billion equity program with ten sales agents.
That makes the share count the number to keep watching…
About 186 million shares are now outstanding, and the new program sells stock at a fraction of earlier prices.
Forgings before customers
The U.S. Forged Rings deal reserves capacity for large components such as reactor vessels, lids and support structures. They’ll come from a planned plant in Hertford County, North Carolina, with first deliveries expected in 2030 and options to expand.
That’s a sensible hedge. Big nuclear forgings are a real bottleneck, and locking in a domestic supplier now beats queuing later.
It’s also separate from the first Aurora plant at Idaho National Laboratory. There, structural work has begun, and Oklo targets its first full fuel assembly in 2027.
The catch is demand. Meta’s prepayment supports an Ohio campus of up to 1.2 gigawatts, yet a binding power contract still hasn’t been signed.
And Wall Street sees revenue arriving slowly:
Analysts expect only about $122 million in 2029, small against capacity for 27 modules.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
The cash is the valuation
At Friday’s close, Oklo was worth $4.4 billion, while its enterprise value was just $1.9 billion. In other words, the market values the reactor business at well under half the company.
NuScale is priced even closer to its balance sheet: a $2.1 billion market value against $1.9 billion of cash and investments. Investors are paying for optionality at both, and not much more.
But Oklo’s cash has a long road ahead. Here’s what it has to fund:
Analysts expect about $6.3 billion of free cash flow to go out from 2026 through 2030, roughly double what Oklo holds today.
My take: Friday’s jump was earned on the quarter, since Oklo lost less and kept its spending plan intact. Still, reserving parts for 27 modules is a bet on orders that don’t exist yet, and every share sold near $24 dilutes holders far more than raises at $60 did. I’d want a price tag on Aurora-INL before buying.
That could come with the fiscal-year report, expected March 17. It should show Aurora-INL’s cost, fuel progress and how many more shares Oklo sold to get there.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
