Key Takeaways
- NVIDIA fell 9% today as the post-midterm chip selloff deepened, and Everpure, Applied Digital and Ciena fell even harder.
- NVIDIA’s guidance already leaves out China data-center sales, so the new risk is slower US building and tougher AI rules.
- Analysts expect NVIDIA’s EPS to more than double by fiscal 2029, yet its forward P/E is at a five-year low.
- The selloff looks overdone, and NVIDIA’s Nov. 17 report is the first test of US demand.
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock fell 9% today, the second day of a chip rout that started after Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, stoking fears of tougher AI rules.
AI scientist Gary Marcus summed it up on X: “Absolute slaughter.”
Everpure (P) is off 17% as storage stocks sank on the chance of a slower AI buildout.
China was already out
Reuters reported that about 600,000 of NVIDIA’s H200 chips bound for China are stranded. But management already assumes no China data-center compute revenue in its outlook.
The new worry is at home: US-headquartered customers brought in 69.3% of NVIDIA’s revenue in the year ended January 2026.
That fear hit the whole buildout. Applied Digital (APLD) fell 17% on worries about data-center permits, and Ciena (CIEN) is down 16% with AI-networking stocks.
Analysts aren’t cutting
Analysts expect NVIDIA’s normalized EPS to climb from $9.31 in fiscal 2027 (the year to January 2027) to $21.34 two years later:
The fiscal 2028 estimate is up 25% since the end of June. No new AI rule has been written yet.
Yet NVIDIA traded at 17x forward earnings on Nov. 2. That’s its lowest in five years and less than half its 36x average:
At today’s price, it’s about 16x.
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Nov. 17 is the first real test
Revenue has nearly tripled since the October 2024 quarter, to $96.2 billion in the quarter ended July 26:
Management guided to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the October quarter it reports on Nov. 17, and says supply limits its growth through January 2028. As long as demand outruns supply, slower permits change where NVIDIA’s chips go before they change how many it sells.
So I’d rather be buying here, and ASE, Everpure, Ciena and Applied Digital have the most ground to win back if NVIDIA’s numbers hold.
Of course, if NVIDIA’s outlook comes in light, or Congress moves faster on AI rules than I expect, this rout could run further.
So what is NVIDIA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what NVIDIA could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
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