Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power (SMR) fell 39% in the month through October 22, closing at $5.38, while Oklo (OKLO) declined 33% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 6%.
- Rising Treasury yields and concerns about nuclear project timelines pressured both stocks, with NuScale facing additional uncertainty over its proposed Tennessee Valley Authority project.
- Wall Street’s average NuScale price target dropped from about $41 to $11 over the past year as analysts grew increasingly cautious about commercial execution.
- NuScale’s November 5 earnings call could provide an important update, but securing a definitive customer agreement remains a key catalyst.
What Happened?
NuScale Power (SMR) stock plunged 39% in the month through October 22, closing at $5.38 as concerns about nuclear project timelines, financing costs, and commercial agreements pressured shares.
Oklo (OKLO) declined 33% over the same period, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 6%, highlighting broader weakness among advanced nuclear developers.
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, captured the shift in sentiment on October 1, saying, “Fermi marked the top for all sorts of long shot nuclear energy companies.”
Selling intensified on October 12 as investors questioned whether nuclear developers could turn ambitious project announcements into revenue-generating operations.
On October 14, hotter-than-expected September inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.26%. NuScale fell 10% that session, compared with an 8.6% decline for Oklo, as higher yields weighed on companies whose profits remain years away.
Analysts also became increasingly cautious about NuScale.
UBS downgraded the stock to Sell in September, lowering its target to $6 from $10, while RBC reduced its target to $7 from $10 in October.
Barclays followed on October 20, downgrading NuScale to Underweight and cutting its target to $5 from $11, citing commercial delays and contract uncertainty. Citi subsequently lowered its target to $4, while Truist reduced its forecast to $8.
These reductions coincided with a decline in Wall Street’s average price target from $40.84 a year earlier to $11.07 as of October 22.
Why NuScale Faces Greater Uncertainty Than Oklo
Both companies face lengthy development timelines, but Oklo has achieved a meaningful operational milestone that distinguishes its progress.
In August, Oklo’s Groves Isotope Test Reactor reached first criticality, establishing a controlled nuclear chain reaction less than a year after groundbreaking. Although it is not a commercial electricity plant, the achievement demonstrated progress toward deployment.
NuScale’s commercial opportunity centers on its partnership with ENTRA1 Energy and a proposed nuclear development program involving the Tennessee Valley Authority.
However, the program still requires definitive power purchase agreements before potential generating capacity can translate into confirmed commercial commitments.
NuScale also announced a manufacturing agreement with Doosan Enerbility on October 29, advancing production of critical reactor components without resolving uncertainty about commercial commitments.
UBS previously projected construction timelines exceeding five years, approximately $700 million in cash consumption between 2026 and 2028, and continued losses through 2030.
NuScale ended June with $1.9 billion in cash and investments, providing financial flexibility, although shareholder dilution remains a concern.
Its weighted-average diluted share count increased from approximately 51 million in fiscal 2022 to 164 million in fiscal 2025, highlighting the potential cost of financing development through equity issuance.
Is NuScale Stock Undervalued or Overvalued?
At its October 22 closing price of $5.38, NuScale traded approximately 51% below its $11.07 consensus analyst target, implying roughly 106% potential upside over the following 12 months.
However, that gap does not necessarily make the stock undervalued, particularly as declining analyst forecasts reflect uncertainty surrounding project timelines and commercial agreements.
NuScale’s substantial liquidity and recent manufacturing progress support its long-term opportunity, but cash consumption, shareholder dilution, and the need for definitive customer commitments remain significant risks.
The November 5 earnings call could provide greater clarity on commercial progress, while Oklo’s demonstrated reactor milestone gives it an advantage in evidence of execution.
For now, NuScale looks more like a speculative turnaround than a clear bargain, making a cautious hold for existing shareholders or waiting for stronger commercial commitments more compelling than aggressively buying the decline.
So what is NuScale stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
