Key Stats for News Corp Stock
- Current Price: $32.45
- Target Price (Mid): ~$45
- Street Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return: ~40%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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What Happened?
News Corporation (NWS) thinks its own shares are cheap, and it is spending real money to prove it. Alongside fiscal fourth-quarter results on August 5, the company confirmed an ongoing $1 billion repurchase program, capping a year in which it already bought back $643 million in stock, more than four times the prior year’s pace. The results underneath that buyback were the best in the company’s history: record fourth-quarter profit, full-year revenue of $9 billion, and free cash flow up 42%.
The market’s response has been oddly divided. Shares beat, popped toward $34 the next session, then slipped back to $32.45, and the average analyst price target still sits near $31, below where the stock trades today. Management insists the business is “materially undervalued,” while the Street’s own mean target quietly disagrees.
A Record Year the Headline Numbers Almost Hide
The reported figures need a translation before they make sense. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 10.8% to $2.34 billion, beating the Street’s $2.25 billion estimate by 4%. Total segment EBITDA jumped 31% to $423 million, the highest fourth-quarter profit News Corp has ever posted, and margins expanded 280 basis points to 18.1%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.35, well ahead of the $0.23 consensus.
On a continuing-operations basis, reported EPS rose to $0.33 from $0.09 a year earlier, and net income climbed to $230 million. The quarter marked News Corp’s 13th straight period of year-over-year EBITDA growth.
For the full year, free cash flow climbed to $811 million, which management pegged at roughly 50% conversion from EBITDA, and adjusted EPS rose 33% to $1.18. CFO Lavanya Chandrashekar tied the gain to working capital improvements “on inventories and on days payable” while capital expenditure held nearly flat. That is what funded the accelerated buyback.
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Two Engines Are Carrying the Story
The strength is concentrated, and that concentration matters. Dow Jones grew fourth-quarter revenue 7% to $644 million with EBITDA up 20% to $181 million, as B2B products, including Risk and Compliance, up 11% to $102 million, now generate more than half of the segment profit. Management reaffirmed a path to $1 billion in Dow Jones EBITDA by fiscal 2030. Digital Real Estate Services was the standout, with revenue up 19% to $553 million and EBITDA up 46% to $222 million, powered by Realtor.com’s seventh consecutive quarter of growth and strong Australian listings at REA.
CEO Robert Thomson framed Realtor’s position in unusually pointed terms. “When people talk about moats in the AI age, moats is substantially medieval concept. What Realtor has been creating is a chasm between itself and other companies because of the way that they’ve been building proprietary IP that no AI engine can legally scrape,” he said. The claim matters because it is the bull case: News Corp owns trusted, first-party content that AI models increasingly need and cannot lawfully copy. Comscore data cited on the call put Realtor.com at 33% of real estate portal visits, up from 31% a quarter earlier.
On July 21, News Corp filed a copyright countersuit against browser company Brave, alleging it scraped and resold Wall Street Journal and New York Post articles to AI firms, and is seeking up to $150,000 per infringed work. These are unproven allegations, not a settled judgment, and Brave sued first in 2025, seeking a fair-use ruling. But the litigation sits alongside real revenue: News Corp already licenses content to OpenAI and Meta, the latter through a reported $150 million deal, and expects a share of the $1.5 billion Anthropic author settlement.
News Corp trades near 25 times forward earnings, well above visible media peers like Nexstar at about 7 times and oOh!media near 14 times. The premium narrows once you see the company is now a recurring-revenue data and real estate business rather than a broadcaster, carrying almost no net leverage at 0.41 times EBITDA. Whether it holds rests on how much credit you give the two engines against the shrinking News Media segment, where EBITDA slipped to $24 million on reinvestment in the new California Post.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $32.45
- Target Price (Mid): ~$45
- Potential Total Return: ~40%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case scenario values News Corp at around $45 per share realized by June 2031, implying roughly 40% total return from today’s price and an annualized IRR of about 7%. That is upside, but not a windfall: the model rewards patience over a multi-year hold, not a quick re-rating. It leans on modest revenue growth of around 3% a year from the two engines already carrying results, with Dow Jones B2B expanding toward its fiscal 2030 EBITDA goal and Realtor.com compounding yield. The margin path does the heavier lifting, with net income margin projected to widen from the mid-single digits toward around 9%, echoing the fourth quarter’s 280-basis-point expansion.
The primary risk is the housing market, since Realtor.com’s monetization improves with transaction volume, and management flagged that rising mortgage rates could push a recovery further out, with Australian new-buy listings already down 2% in July. The upside: rates ease, real estate activity rebounds, and AI licensing converts faster than modeled. The downside: housing stays frozen, News Media keeps leaking, and the stock earns its below-market Street target near $31 instead.
Conclusion
The tell to watch is the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which News Corp reports in early November. Management flagged a “particularly difficult prior year comparison” for that quarter, so the bar is low, and the number that matters is not headline revenue but Digital Real Estate EBITDA. If Realtor.com holds double-digit revenue growth into a weak housing market, the moat argument stops being a slogan and becomes a trend. If it stalls as mortgage rates bite, the Street’s cautious $31 target starts to look right and the buyback becomes the only thing holding the floor.
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Should You Invest in News Corp?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
