Key Takeaways
- Nebius Group fell 15% despite a third-quarter revenue beat, as it now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its range.
- Nebius plans $27 billion of capex this year and $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027, for about the 2027 revenue analysts already expected.
- IREN and Applied Digital fell too.
- Nebius is cheaper now, but it still has to show how it will pay for the build.
Nebius Group (NBIS) sank 15% today after a third-quarter beat came with a much bigger spending bill than Wall Street expected.
IREN (IREN) and Applied Digital (APLD) fell too.
Revenue beat, guidance didn’t
Third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million beat the $907.5 million analysts expected, according to LSEG. But CEO Arkady Volozh now sees 2026 revenue at the low end of the $3 billion to $3.4 billion range. Nebius’s first 2027 outlook, $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue, came “reflecting a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out.”
Before the report, analysts expected $3.35 billion of revenue this year and $12.3 billion in 2027:
The 2027 bill just got $11 billion to $16 billion bigger
Nebius now expects $27 billion of capex in 2026, up from its earlier $20 billion to $25 billion. For 2027 it expects $40 billion to $45 billion, against the $28.77 billion FactSet expected, for about the 2027 revenue analysts already had in their models.
Customer prepayments brought in $4.4 billion in the first half, but Nebius already raised $5.75 billion of debt last quarter and took out a 364-day, $3.5 billion Citi facility in October, and it will need much more.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Nebius. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’ Analyst Ratings
Neoclouds lean on Nvidia
The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that Nvidia’s board was planning to push out Huang. Nvidia supplies these companies’ GPUs and backs them with cash, including $2 billion invested in Nebius in March.
IREN dropped 7%, even though its AI cloud revenue nearly tripled from the prior quarter to $200 million. It faces the same question as Nebius: what will its own build cost? CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 6%, giving back part of Wednesday’s nearly 25% jump on its results. Applied Digital, whose anchor tenant is CoreWeave, slid 6%.
Cheaper, but I’d wait
Before today, Nebius traded at 5.9x forward sales, well below its 10.6x five-year average:
At today’s price, it’s even lower. But before buying, I’d want to know how much of the build comes from new stock or short-term debt.
Of course, if prepayments keep pace and the new capacity sells at the $20 million-plus per megawatt management has quoted, the extra spending could pay off in 2028.
So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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