The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) has been under pressure as fertilizer prices corrected from their 2022 highs. The stock trades near $27/share, down from its peak above $38 earlier this year. Softer pricing and uneven agricultural demand have weighed on results, though Mosaic remains one of the world’s largest phosphate and potash producers with a disciplined cost structure and steady free cash flow.
Recently, Mosaic completed the sale of its interest in Ma’aden Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company and became a shareholder in Ma’aden on January 2, 2025, streamlining its Saudi partnership structure. Management also updated 2025 guidance to reflect lower phosphate volumes and stable potash pricing, and later provided preliminary Q3 volume figures showing more stability across markets. These steps highlight Mosaic’s ongoing focus on efficiency and operational discipline amid a softer fertilizer cycle.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Mosaic could trade by 2027. We’ve compiled consensus price targets and valuation models to map the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own projections.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Meaningful Upside
Mosaic trades at about $27/share today. The average analyst price target is $38/share, implying around 37% upside over the next year. Forecasts show a wide range, reflecting mixed expectations across the Street:
- High estimate: ~$48/share
- Low estimate: ~$30/share
- Median target: ~$37/share
- Ratings: 7 Buys, 4 Outperforms, 8 Holds
For investors, this represents meaningful upside potential. Analysts believe Mosaic could benefit from a gradual rebound in fertilizer prices and tighter global supply, particularly if crop nutrient demand improves in key export markets. The company’s cost control and focus on shareholder returns give it resilience even if recovery takes longer than expected.
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Mosaic: Growth Outlook and Valuation
Mosaic’s fundamentals look steady, supported by disciplined management and consistent profitability:
- Revenue growth: ~4.5% annually through 2027
- Operating margins: ~11.4% expected
- Forward P/E multiple: ~8.5x
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using an 8.5x forward P/E suggests ~$28/share by 2027
- That implies about 3% total returns, or roughly 1.4% annualized
For investors, this suggests Mosaic is trading near fair value. The stock offers stability and income rather than rapid growth, supported by a 3.2% dividend yield and strong cash flow generation. Upside depends on a rebound in fertilizer pricing or better-than-expected export demand, but the downside appears limited given Mosaic’s solid balance sheet.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Mosaic remains one of the most established players in global agriculture, supplying key nutrients essential for food production. Demand for phosphate and potash continues to rise gradually as farmers aim to boost yields and improve soil health, particularly in emerging markets.
Management’s focus on operational efficiency, portfolio simplification, and disciplined capital allocation is improving Mosaic’s long-term positioning. For investors, these strengths point to a more resilient business model that can maintain profitability even in volatile markets.
Bear Case: Pricing and Market Cycles
Despite these positives, Mosaic’s performance still hinges on fertilizer prices, which have cooled significantly since 2022. Earnings and margins could remain under pressure if agricultural commodity prices stay subdued or global supply remains elevated.
Competition also remains strong, with producers in Canada, Russia, and the Middle East maintaining aggressive pricing strategies. For investors, this means Mosaic’s upside could be capped in the near term, with returns coming mainly from dividends rather than price appreciation.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Mosaic Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using an 8.5x forward P/E suggests Mosaic could trade near $28/share by 2027. That would represent about 3% total returns, or roughly 1.4% annualized growth from current levels.
While this indicates a fair valuation, it already assumes stable margins and moderate recovery in fertilizer pricing. To deliver stronger upside, Mosaic would need sustained improvement in global nutrient demand or better pricing power in key export markets.
For investors, Mosaic appears to be a steady, income-oriented cyclical rather than a high-growth opportunity. It provides exposure to global agriculture with manageable risk, a reliable dividend, and modest upside potential if the commodity cycle improves.
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