MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB) has been one of the more volatile growth stories in tech. The stock trades near $310/share, down from recent highs but still well above its lows. Strong demand for its Atlas cloud platform and continued revenue growth have kept optimism alive, but with ongoing losses and heavy competition, analysts appear divided on what comes next.
Recently, MongoDB announced that its search and vector search capabilities will be available in Community Edition and Enterprise Server, which are features that were previously exclusive to Atlas. This expansion comes as an IDC survey suggests more than 74% of organizations plan to use integrated vector databases in their agentic AI workflows. MongoDB also released Spring Data MongoDB 4.5.0, adding vector search index creation support, and unveiled its new “agentic AI” strategy alongside MCP Server, which is designed to enable database-aware agent coding. These steps highlight how MongoDB is positioning itself at the center of AI adoption and developer innovation.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think MongoDB could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to outline the stock’s potential trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Limited Near-Term Upside
MongoDB trades around $310/share today. The average analyst price target is $347/share, which points to modest upside. Forecasts show a wide spread and reflect mixed sentiment:
- High estimate: $425/share
- Low estimate: $240/share
- Median target: $363/share
- Ratings: mostly Buys with some Holds
It looks like analysts see some room for gains, but the broad range of targets suggests conviction is weak. The takeaway is that expectations are already high, and MongoDB may need stronger-than-expected results to break meaningfully above current levels. The stock has already priced in much of the near-term optimism, so investors may find risk-reward more balanced than exciting.
Investors should weigh whether the potential upside justifies the risks of owning a premium-priced stock in a competitive sector.
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MongoDB: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals highlight strong growth potential, but profitability is expected only over time:
- Revenue is projected to grow ~17.5% annually through 2028
- Operating margins may improve from -7.4% today to 15.9% by 2028
- Shares trade at ~82x forward earnings and ~63x EV/EBITDA
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests the stock could reach ~$556/share by early 2028
- That implies ~79% upside, or about 28% annualized returns
These numbers suggest MongoDB could compound steadily, but not without risks. The valuation already prices in a lot of growth, which means the stock is not cheap but also not unreasonable if margin expansion plays out. Longer-term investors may see this as a story worth holding, but short-term traders may find volatility a bigger factor than fundamentals.
Investors may see MongoDB as a high-risk, high-reward growth story, with meaningful upside potential if execution is strong.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
MongoDB continues to post strong revenue growth even as the broader software market slows. Its Atlas cloud platform is the main engine, seeing widespread adoption as enterprises move workloads to flexible, developer-friendly databases.
Customer spending also looks sticky, with net expansion above 120%, meaning existing clients keep spending more. Gross margins above 70% provide a strong foundation, giving bulls confidence MongoDB can scale into profitability. The company’s developer-first approach has created a loyal base that strengthens its competitive edge.
These factors help explain why investors see MongoDB as a long-term winner in cloud databases, with the potential to justify its premium valuation.
Bear Case: Valuation and Risks
Despite the growth story, MongoDB’s valuation looks demanding at more than 80x forward earnings. Competition remains fierce, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle all pushing hard into database services.
There is also the risk of slower adoption in mature markets or a pullback in IT spending. With EBIT margins still negative, rising costs could weigh further on profitability if revenue growth slows. If investor sentiment shifts away from high-growth names, MongoDB could face valuation compression.
The bear case is that MongoDB’s valuation assumes strong execution. If growth cools or margins fail to expand, the stock could face a sharp re-rating that limits investor returns.
Outlook for 2028: What Could MongoDB Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests MongoDB could trade near $555/share by 2028. That would represent about a 79% gain from today’s level, or roughly 28% annualized returns. The scenario assumes steady revenue growth and margins improving toward the mid-teens.
While that would be solid performance, the forecast already builds in optimism. To deliver stronger upside, MongoDB may need to outperform on customer expansion, Atlas adoption, or profitability improvements. Without that, gains may be steady but not spectacular. For now, the company still has much to prove before it can justify its lofty multiples.
MongoDB looks like a promising long-term growth stock, but the path to outsized returns depends on the company beating current expectations.
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