Key Takeaways
- Moderna shares fell 7% today after the company guided to cash costs of about $4 billion in 2027 and $4 billion to $4.5 billion a year through 2030, mostly for oncology.
- That spending backs a promising cancer vaccine, but it means costs stop falling toward the cash breakeven Moderna had targeted for 2028.
- Analysts’ 2028 revenue estimate still falls short of $4 billion, and the stock trades far above its usual sales multiple.
- The plan raises the stakes for BioNTech, which is losing money as its revenue shrinks.
Moderna (MRNA) stock sank 7% today after its Analyst Day put a price on its cancer push. The company expects “approximately $4 billion in cash costs in 2027” and $4 billion to $4.5 billion a year through 2030, “primarily driven by increased investment in oncology.”
That raises the stakes for BioNTech (BNTX), which has mRNA cancer treatments in its own late-stage pipeline. Its shares fell 3% today.
Costs stop falling
Moderna expects 2026 revenue to grow 15% to 25%, against its original outlook of up to 10% (it first raised that outlook last week). But last November’s Analyst Day put 2027 cash costs at $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion, on the path to cash breakeven in 2028. Moderna has pulled that framework into 2026, a year early, but from 2027 its costs climb back up and stay higher through 2030.
Analysts expect revenue to nearly double from 2025 to 2028:
The 2026 estimate is already at the top of Moderna’s range, so I don’t see today’s update moving it much. But even 2028’s $3.68 billion falls short of $4 billion in yearly cash costs. Moderna can fund that gap for a while, since it expects to end 2026 with about $9 billion of cash, investments and undrawn borrowing capacity.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Moderna. How many say “Buy”?
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BioNTech has less room to keep up
Moderna plans to make its Marlborough plant the global supply site for intismeran, its personalized cancer vaccine, in 2027, subject to approvals. BioNTech is paying up too: on Nov. 10 it agreed to buy a $205 million FDA priority review voucher for a future filing from its late-stage cancer pipeline. But analysts expect its revenue to fall 35.4% in 2026, with losses of $5.68 a share this year and $5.28 next year. Can it match Moderna’s spending while its sales shrink?
Investors are paying up front
Moderna traded at 44x forward sales at yesterday’s close, against a five-year average of 8.2x:
Today’s drop looks fair to me. Intismeran, given with Merck’s Keytruda, cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% in Phase 3, so spending to launch it makes sense. But at 44x sales, investors have already paid for that success. Of course, Moderna gives formal 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results early next year, and a bigger revenue outlook would make $4 billion a year look far more manageable.
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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