Key Stats for Merck Stock
- Current Price: $149.88
- Target Price (Mid): ~$161
- Street Target: ~$159
- Potential Total Return: ~8%
- Annualized IRR: ~2% / year
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What Happened?
Merck (MRK) won a wider European Union label for Keytruda plus Padcev in muscle-invasive bladder cancer on October 21. That came three days before full Phase 3 data on its cancer vaccine reaches ESMO in Madrid. The approval followed a positive European advisory opinion in September, so it was largely expected. Shares closed at $149.88 on October 21, 42% above their 2025 close of $105.26.
Bladder Cancer Is Also the Vaccine’s Next Test
The new label adds patients who can take cisplatin chemotherapy. It extends a June 24 approval that covered up to half of patients who cannot. The 808-patient KEYNOTE-B15 trial compared Keytruda plus Padcev with gemcitabine-cisplatin and surgery:
- The risk of recurrence, progression, or death fell by 47%.
- The risk of death fell by 35%.
The label also covers Keytruda SC. Padcev belongs to Pfizer (PFE) and Astellas Pharma (4503), so Merck gains through Keytruda, and launch timing depends on each country’s reimbursement process.
Bladder cancer is also one of the vaccine’s next readouts. At a Morgan Stanley conference on September 14, Dean Li, president of Merck Research Labs, said that “for MIBC or for bladder cancer, the tumor mutation load is higher.” He called the bladder and kidney cancer trials “bookends” for how far the program expands.
Li Set the Bar for the October 24 Vaccine Data
Full Phase 3 results for intismeran autogene arrive on October 24. It is the individualized cancer vaccine Merck shares with Moderna (MRNA). The partners said in August that adding it to Keytruda improved recurrence-free survival in resected melanoma, and the presentation will show by how much.
Li framed the test himself. In five-year Phase 2 follow-up, responders who were cancer-free at one year “remain largely so at 3 years, were largely so at 5 years.” He noted that the Phase 2 had “a small sample size.” He said the Phase 3 hope is “to be in the ballpark of that.”
Sac-TMT, an antibody-drug conjugate aimed at the TROP2 protein, follows with lung data on October 25 and endometrial data on October 26. At the same conference, Chairman and CEO Robert Davis said, “we have 17 Phase IIIs we’re running, 13 of those are in tumor types where we think we’ll be first in class.” He said most of those trials sit outside lung and breast cancer, the more competitive TROP2 markets.
TIKR tracks 27 analysts on Merck. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Merck, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Merck’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $149.88
- Target Price (Mid): ~$161
- Potential Total Return: ~8%
- Annualized IRR: ~2% / year
The TIKR model’s mid case puts Merck at around $161 by December 31, 2030. That is about 8% above $149.88, or around 2% a year. Its 2025 to 2035 inputs assume revenue growth near 2% a year and net margins near 33%.
That sits just above the Street mean of around $159, which reflects 14 Buy, 5 Outperform, and 8 Hold ratings. Goldman Sachs cut its target to $155 from $160 on October 19, according to TipRanks.
At around 18x forward P/E, the near-term risk is vaccine data landing well below Phase 2, which would likely slow expansion beyond melanoma. Data near Phase 2 would support faster expansion.
Conclusion
The deciding figure is the INTerpath-001 recurrence-free survival result on October 24. Li said a result in the ballpark of Phase 2 would raise the odds of success in other tumor types. A clearly smaller one would likely slow that plan. Merck’s October 26 investor event and its October 29 third-quarter call at 9:00 a.m. ET follow within a week.
So what is Merck stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Merck could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
