Key Takeaways
- Marvell Technology fell 7% today as Democrats’ election sweep hit AI data-center stocks, Celestica included.
- The election adds policy risk to a stock already weighed down by its $115 billion all-stock deal.
- Broadcom fell far less, so much of Marvell’s drop is its own.
- Marvell’s forward P/E was already below its five-year average, so much of its AI premium is gone.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 7% today after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and key governors’ races, some on promises to get tougher on data-center construction.
Celestica (CLS) fell 9%. But Broadcom (AVGO), which sells to the same hyperscalers, slipped just 2%.
A new worry on top of an old one
Democrats won in data-center hubs Texas and Georgia, and Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. called the sweep a “seismic shift” for the US AI buildout on X. Still, an election doesn’t undo projects already funded.
Marvell’s bigger weight is the $115 billion all-stock deal for Lumentum it struck on Nov. 2, which adds about half to its share count and is expected to close in the first half of 2028. In all-stock deals, “the acquirer’s stock is sold down,” as Gary Black of The Future Fund noted on X this morning. By Monday, Marvell was 32% below its Oct. 28 close, before the talks leaked.
Coherent gets the first test
Coherent (COHR), which fell 6%, reports later today. In August it guided to $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion of revenue for the September quarter, up from $2.05 billion in the June quarter. What it says about hyperscaler orders matters for Marvell too.
Celestica guided on Oct. 26 to $40 billion of 2027 revenue, up 90%, with CEO Rob Mionis citing “customer demand forecasts meaningfully higher for 2028.” Do hyperscalers stick with those forecasts now?
Broadcom guided to $21.7 billion of AI chip revenue for its October quarter, up 236%, and reports next month. We’ll see then whether its customers keep spending.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Marvell. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Marvell, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Marvell’s Analyst Ratings
Most of the AI premium is already gone
Analysts still have Marvell’s normalized EPS climbing from $2.84 in the year ended January 2026 to $12.67 in fiscal 2029:
I don’t see the election changing the next two years much: Marvell says it has the demand and the supply for about $20 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue. Policy could bite after that, since its plan assumes data-center capex grows about 35% a year through 2030.
Marvell traded at 30x forward earnings at the last close, under its five-year average of 33x and its 70x June peak:
At today’s price, it’s even lower. Bottom line: the deal weighs more than the election, and investors have already taken much of the AI premium out. Of course, if hyperscalers trim next year’s budgets, those estimates fall. Marvell’s third-quarter report in early December will tell us more.
So what is Marvell stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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