Key Takeaways
- MARA Holdings stock fell 21.9% in the past week (through Monday’s close), while IREN lost 20% and Cipher Mining lost 31%.
- Most of the drop came on two days of selling in AI infrastructure stocks after a hotter-than-expected September inflation report.
- MARA’s total debt rose to $3.6 billion at the end of 2025, and it still depends on bitcoin, so higher rates and a weaker coin both hurt it.
- Analysts’ $19 average target is about 2.5x the stock’s price, and the tests ahead are third-quarter results in early November and the two AI leases MARA’s CEO expects by year-end.
MARA Holdings (MARA) stock is down 21.9% in the past week (through Monday’s close), and it had plenty of company. IREN (IREN) lost 20% and Cipher Mining (CIFR) 31%, while CleanSpark (CLSK) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 18% and 15%.
Hot inflation hit every bitcoin miner that has pitched itself as an AI landlord, and MARA took a weak bitcoin on top of that.
Two bad days did the damage
On Wednesday, Oct. 14, September’s consumer prices came in 3.7% higher than a year earlier, against the 3.6% economists expected, and US stocks had their worst day since July. The odds of an October Fed rate hike briefly topped 50%, which is rough news for anyone borrowing to build data centers. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 16%, IREN and Cipher lost more than 12% each, and Riot, CleanSpark and MARA fell too.
On Friday, the selling came back. CoreWeave dropped another 12% and bitcoin dipped to about $81,000. Goldman Sachs’ Amanda Lynam put AI-related bonds “at the epicenter of the funding cost debate”, with their spreads 25 basis points wider on the week.
Those two sessions account for about four-fifths of MARA’s drop.
MARA gets hit twice
CoreWeave’s worry this week was funding costs. MARA has that worry plus bitcoin’s price, since it still lives off the coin, and it has borrowed heavily over the past two years.
Total debt went from $326 million at the end of 2023 to $3.6 billion at the end of 2025, against $547 million of cash and short-term investments.
It has been selling coins, too: about $1.6 billion of bitcoin in the first half of 2026, by its own filings. Another 1,000 BTC reportedly went to exchanges in the five days to Oct. 19, and MARA hasn’t said whether it sold them.
Is MARA a buy after the drop?
Even after the drop, analysts see plenty of upside.
The 15 analysts’ average target is $19. That’s down from $23 a year ago but still about 2.5x Monday’s close. Even the lowest target, Morgan Stanley’s $10 (Underweight, cut from $11 on Oct. 9), is above Monday’s close.
The upside rests on the two AI leases MARA’s CEO expects by year-end. Until they’re signed, the stock is a leveraged bet on bitcoin and on interest rates, and this week showed how that bet can go. I’d wait for third-quarter results in early November before buying.
Of course, one signed lease could change the picture quickly.
So what is MARA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what MARA could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
