Key Takeaways
- AMD CEO Lisa Su said more than 10 million people activated Meta’s Muse agent in 45 days, and she called it an adoption curve.
- Free sign-ups pushed through Facebook and Instagram say little about whether people will pay.
- Meta’s third-quarter capex of $34.9 billion topped its $32.8 billion of operating cash flow.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) CEO Lisa Su has a favorite new example of how fast AI is catching on. It comes from a company that buys her chips by the gigawatt: Meta Platforms (META) and its Muse agent.
“Over 10 million people activating in the span of 45 days, that’s pretty incredible; that’s an adoption curve,” Su said in an interview on Yahoo Finance’s Sozzi Unleashed.
Tech critic Ed Zitron fired back on X that Muse is “free and growth hacked across billions of people on Instagram and Facebook.”
Both can be true. For Meta shareholders, Zitron’s point matters more.
Su Has Skin in This Game
Meta committed to 1 gigawatt of AMD chips, with room for up to 6. In return, it can buy up to 160 million AMD shares at a penny each. Those shares unlock as the chips ship, and the last batch only if AMD’s stock reaches $600. AMD booked a $1.1 billion third-quarter charge on those warrants and matching ones for OpenAI, and it said it will put $1 billion into Meta’s latest stock sale.
Every Muse user Meta serves needs more compute, and compute is what Su sells. She now expects AMD’s revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.
People who don’t sell chips see it too. On Power On with Mark Gurman, Bloomberg’s Vlad Savov, whose test is whether non-tech-savvy relatives use an AI product, said “Meta’s Muse and what Apple is promising with its Siri AI upgrades, they seem like they’re going to cross that threshold with consumers earlier than anybody else.”
Meta’s numbers back that up: more than 10 million US and Canadian setups in about six weeks, about 25% active on any given day, and more than a quarter of weekly actives shopping through it, averaging over $200 a purchase.
Meta’s Ads Are Carrying the Load
Analysts expect Meta’s revenue to climb from $201 billion in 2025 to $373 billion in 2028. Ads brought in 97.6% of 2025’s sales.
Ten million free users don’t move those estimates.
TIKR Tracks 64 Analysts on Meta Platforms. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Meta Platforms, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Meta Platforms’ Analyst Ratings
Meta’s Capex Has Passed Its Cash Flow
Meta’s capex has been climbing toward its operating cash flow:
In the third quarter of 2026, it passed it: $34.9 billion against $32.8 billion. Meta guides 2026 capex to $135 billion to $145 billion, about double 2025’s $72.2 billion. Analysts expect negative free cash flow through 2028, and S&P, which sees about $132 billion of deficits over those three years, turned its outlook negative on Oct. 30.
Free users add to the bill. Zuckerberg called Muse “very compute-intensive to run” in the near term, and Meta is aiming to make it more than 10 times as compute-efficient over the next year.
Charging for Muse Is the Hard Part
Meta’s chief AI officer, Alexandr Wang, told Nikkei there are no plans for ads inside Muse. That leaves $20 and $100 consumer plans, business subscriptions, a purchase fee, and an opt-in link that could sharpen Meta’s ad personalization. But Amazon has blocked Muse from shopping its store.
The bar is high. Just 1% of Meta’s revenue against this year’s $257 billion consensus is about $2.57 billion, or about $257 a year from every one of those 10 million users.
Value Meta on Its Ads for Now
A $200 average purchase gives a fee something to work with, but Meta hasn’t disclosed the fee, and nobody knows how many users would pay.
Meta can put an AI product in front of millions almost overnight. Charging enough of them to matter looks a long way off, so I’d value Meta on its ads until its fourth-quarter call, which should bring the 2027 capex plan, shows otherwise.
So What Is Meta Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Meta could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
