Key Takeaways
- Fisher Investments’ latest 13F shows a new $5.20 billion ExxonMobil stake, the biggest new or added position of its third quarter, ahead of its adds to GE Vernova and Cisco.
- ExxonMobil trades at 12x forward earnings, just under its five-year average, but those are war-year earnings.
- Analysts expect ExxonMobil’s earnings to fall each year from 2026 through 2028 as the war’s lift to oil prices and refining margins fades.
- The dividend is well-covered, but the stock looks fully priced until December’s plan update shows what ExxonMobil can earn after the war.
Ken Fisher’s Fisher Investments ended the third quarter with a big new bet on oil. Its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 6, shows 31.93 million shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), worth $5.20 billion at quarter-end prices. Fisher didn’t own the stock on June 30.
That’s the biggest new or added position in the filing. Fisher also added 38% more shares of GE Vernova (GEV) and 22% more shares of Cisco (CSCO) during the quarter.
ExxonMobil goes straight into the top 20
The new stake is 1.5% of the $348.26 billion of US stocks in Fisher’s 13F, which holds 1,054 positions. That makes ExxonMobil Fisher’s 16th-largest holding. It’s a big slot for a stock that wasn’t in the portfolio three months earlier. (The firm manages $386.67 billion in all, according to its latest Form ADV.)
ExxonMobil stock is up 4% since Sept. 30. That’s measured from the quarter-end price, because the filing doesn’t show when Fisher bought or what it paid. Fisher’s two big adds haven’t done as well: GE Vernova is down 14% over the same stretch, and Cisco is down 5%.
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on Exxon Mobil. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Exxon Mobil, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Exxon Mobil’s Analyst Ratings
Cheap on this year’s earnings, pricier on 2028’s
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $13.70 for 2026, nearly double the $6.99 ExxonMobil earned in 2025, and then a steady fade to $10.40 by 2028:
Much of that jump comes from the war. In the second quarter alone, higher prices added $4.65 billion to Upstream earnings, and stronger refining margins added $3.18 billion to Energy Products, ExxonMobil said in its 10-Q. With Brent briefly dipping below $90 this week after President Trump said the war could end soon, I wouldn’t expect those later estimates to rise.
Still, $10.40 is well above what ExxonMobil earned in 2025, so analysts do expect a higher floor after the windfall. Management is making the same pitch. Its 2030 plan calls for $25 billion more in earnings than in 2024 at constant prices, from more Permian and Guyana barrels and lower costs.
On this year’s earnings, ExxonMobil trades at 12x forward earnings, just under its five-year average of 13x:
But those forward earnings come from the windfall years. Value the stock on the 2028 consensus instead, and its multiple is well above that average. Investors have seen this before: the forward P/E hit its five-year low of 6.6x in July 2022, the last time oil earnings peaked.
The consensus target has climbed to $184, from $129 a year ago:
That’s 9% above the last close. The 26 analysts’ targets range from $160 to $213. Single-digit upside is thin for a stock whose earnings analysts expect to shrink two years running.
A safe dividend at a full price
Fisher has good reason to like ExxonMobil’s cash flow. Its dividend took a well-covered 40% of free cash flow over the 12 months to Sept. 30, down from 73% in fiscal 2025, and the company plans $20 billion of buybacks in 2027. CEO Darren Woods said on the third-quarter call that shrinking the share count keeps the total dividend bill steady while the per-share payout grows.
But ExxonMobil still has to show it can earn its keep at ordinary oil prices. Its U.S. Upstream business, which includes the Permian, earned a 4% return on $118.1 billion of average capital in 2025, after the all-stock Pioneer deal made that base much bigger.
Fisher’s buy makes sense for a huge fund that wants dependable cash returns. But at 12x war-year earnings and 9% below the Street’s target, I wouldn’t chase ExxonMobil here. The next test is the corporate plan update expected in December. If ExxonMobil keeps its 2030 targets, including a return on capital above 17% (up from 9.3% in 2025), today’s price looks a lot more reasonable. Fisher’s next 13F, due in mid-February, will show whether it kept buying.
So what is ExxonMobil stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what ExxonMobil could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
