Key Takeaways
- NVIDIA trades at 14x forward earnings, its lowest in three years, after Jensen Huang resigned as CEO.
- NVIDIA’s forward P/E had already fallen to the S&P 500’s multiple by Sept. 30, and it kept falling through November’s chip selloff and Huang’s exit.
- Analysts still expect normalized EPS to grow 95% this fiscal year and 70% next, and those estimates barely moved.
- The main risk is that analysts cut those estimates without him, and NVIDIA’s Nov. 17 report is the first test.
NVIDIA (NVDA) announced on Nov. 12 that Jensen Huang had resigned as CEO, and Wall Street has been arguing over what he was worth ever since.
Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. put a number on it on CNBC’s Closing Bell: “Jensen was worth a trillion dollars essentially to the valuation of NVIDIA.”
Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, disagrees. On The Compound and Friends, he said: “There’s no Jensen premium. The stock’s been at a discount to every other tech stock with one or two exceptions.” The valuation numbers back much of his case.
NVIDIA’s Estimates Haven’t Budged
NVIDIA’s fiscal year ends in January. Analysts expect normalized EPS of $9.32 for the year ending January 2027, up 95% from $4.77, and $15.85 the year after, up another 70%:
Consensus for next fiscal year was $15.92 in late October and $15.85 on Nov. 12. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon cut his rating, as one of six firms to downgrade the stock by Nov. 12, but left his earnings forecasts unchanged.
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NVIDIA Was Already Cheap Before Huang Left
NVIDIA’s forward P/E fell from 47x in June 2024 to 14x on Nov. 12, less than half its three-year average of 30x and below any fiscal quarter-end reading since 2014:
Brown went further on CNBC’s Halftime Report, saying NVIDIA has traded below the market’s multiple for 24 months. That one’s generous: on Sept. 30, NVIDIA’s 19x only matched the S&P 500’s 19x, according to FactSet.
His larger point holds, though. By Sept. 30, investors were paying the index’s multiple for a company expected to nearly double its earnings, so the stock carried no premium to the market. At 14x, NVIDIA now sits below the S&P 500’s 17.7x on Nov. 5, the index’s lowest in more than three years.
The Cash Doesn’t Need a Famous CEO
Robert Schiffman, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast: “this is a double A credit that I think if my mother was put in as CEO, they would generate $100 billion of free cash flow next year.”
NVIDIA generated $96.7 billion of free cash flow in the year ended January 2026, and analysts expect $190 billion this fiscal year and $319 billion next:
Schiffman’s floor is about what NVIDIA already made last year, and less than a third of next year’s estimate.
Is NVIDIA Stock Too Cheap Now?
A low multiple usually means investors doubt the earnings will last. If customers hold off on orders until NVIDIA names a permanent CEO, $15.85 won’t stay $15.85, and 14x won’t be as cheap as it looks.
Brown’s valuation case holds up. NVIDIA’s multiple had already compressed before Huang left, and it has kept falling while earnings estimates have barely moved. At 14x, that looks too cheap to me.
The test comes on Nov. 17, when NVIDIA reports under interim CEO Colette Kress against revenue guidance of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. A solid outlook makes 14x look awfully cheap. A soft one is when analysts finally cut.
So What Is NVIDIA Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
