Key Takeaways
- Howard Marks’ Oaktree added 22% to its Barrick Mining (B) stake in Q2, while a fund with $6.2 billion in US stocks cut its stake by 63%.
- On TIKR’s numbers, Oaktree looks like it made the better call.
- Analysts expect Barrick’s earnings to keep rising through 2028, yet the stock trades around 10x forward earnings, against a five-year average of nearly 15x.
- The price of gold is the main risk, and Barrick’s Nov. 9 report and both funds’ next 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, are what to watch.
Howard Marks’ Oaktree and a fund with $6.2 billion in US stocks went opposite ways on Barrick Mining in Q2. Oaktree added to its stake, and the other fund cut most of its own.
Both 13Fs cover the quarter ended June 30 and were filed Aug. 14. They’re still the latest we have, and the Q3’s are due by Nov. 16.
Since June 30, Barrick’s share price is up 9%.
Oaktree made Barrick a top-10 holding
Oaktree, the firm Marks co-founded, manages $183 billion in all. Its 13F covers only its US stocks: $5.31 billion across 51 positions on June 30. Barrick was No. 10 of those.
Oaktree held 3.21 million shares worth $118 million, or 2.2% of its 13F holdings, after raising its share count 22% over the quarter.
Evergreen Quality Fund GP went the other way. It cut its Barrick shares 63%, to 1.52 million worth $56 million. That’s 0.9% of its 13F holdings and its No. 21 position.
Barrick also trades in Toronto, and a 13F leaves out stocks listed outside the US, so the filing can’t show whether any of those shares just moved to that listing.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Barrick Mining. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Barrick Mining, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Barrick Mining’s Analyst Ratings
Barrick’s business kept delivering
Barrick’s Q2 gave Oaktree plenty to like. It produced 796,000 ounces of gold, beating its own guidance of 730,000-770,000. Adjusted EPS rose 74% from a year earlier to $0.82, and Barrick bought back $1.2 billion of its stock.
It also settled its disputes with Newmont, which agreed to let Barrick go ahead with an IPO of its North American gold business. Barrick still plans to launch that IPO by the end of the year.
Analysts expect earnings to keep climbing. Normalized EPS was $2.42 in 2025, and the consensus is $3.57 this year and $4.80 by 2028:
All of that depends on the price of gold. In Q2, Barrick’s realized gold price fell 8% from the first quarter to $4,417 an ounce.
Meanwhile, its all-in sustaining costs rose to $1,866 an ounce, from $1,708. The Nov. 9 report will show whether those estimates still hold.
The stock hasn’t kept up
Even so, Barrick trades around 10x forward earnings. Its five-year average is nearly 15x, and it peaked at 28x in January 2023:
The low over that stretch was 8.2x, in May 2025, so today’s multiple isn’t far above it.
Wall Street’s view has gone the other way. Over the past year, the consensus target rose from $40 to $50, after peaking at $58 in May:
Targets from the 24 analysts who cover Barrick run from $29 to $58.50. Their $50 average is 24% above the last close.
Oaktree has the better case
The risk is gold. If its price keeps sliding while Barrick’s costs rise, those earnings estimates will come down, and the low multiple won’t look like such a bargain.
But I side with Oaktree. Barrick is earning more each year, buying back billions in stock and lining up an IPO of its North American gold business.
At around 10x forward earnings, that’s a stock I’d rather be adding to than trimming. The other fund kept 1.52 million shares, so it isn’t betting against Barrick outright.
Of course, both funds could have traded Barrick since June 30. Barrick reports on Nov. 9. The Q3 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, will show whether Oaktree kept adding and whether the other fund sold the rest.
So what is Barrick Mining stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Barrick Mining could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
