Key Takeaways
- Hims & Hers fell 9% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $257 million-$277 million, its third cut this year.
- Revenue grew 49%, but gross margin fell to 57% from 74%.
- Subscribers fell as Hims held back marketing before adding Eli Lilly’s Zepbound to its Novo Nordisk drugs.
- The stock’s low forward P/E rests on 2026 EBITDA estimates likely to fall.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock is down 9% today after it cut its full-year profit outlook for the third time this year.
Third-quarter revenue jumped 49% to $890.4 million, but Hims ended September with 103,000 fewer subscribers than in June. It held back US weight-loss marketing before adding Zepbound and Foundayo from Eli Lilly (LLY) to the Novo Nordisk (NVO) drugs it already sells, and on the call, CEO Andrew Dudum called the subscriber hit a trade-off “we will make every time.”
Three cuts and counting
After the Lilly deal, Monday’s report had a lot to prove. Hims now expects $257 million to $277 million of adjusted EBITDA this year, and the midpoint has fallen at every report, from $337.5 million in February to $267 million now. Analysts went into the report expecting more:
The $294 million consensus for 2026 sits above the top of the new range, and 2027’s $400 million needs about 50% growth from the new midpoint. With CFO Yemi Okupe warning of “an additional quarter of subscriber count headwinds,” I’d expect both to come down.
TIKR tracks 15 analysts on Hims & Hers. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Hims & Hers, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Hims & Hers’ Analyst Ratings
Bigger sales, thinner margins
Gross margin fell to 57% from 74% as branded weight-loss drugs and international sales, up 321% after June’s Eucalyptus deal, made up more of the business:
Hims books branded drugs at their full price as revenue, so gross profit grew just 15%. Monthly revenue per average subscriber rose 30% to $105, so fewer subscribers are each paying more. I’m fine with that trade as long as gross profit dollars keep growing.
Lilly and Novo have a stake in that trade. Lilly sold $5.3 billion of Zepbound in the US in the third quarter, so Hims is a small channel for it. Novo, whose Wegovy has anchored Hims’ US weight-loss business since March, now shares that platform with Zepbound. Will Zepbound take patients from Wegovy, or bring in new ones?
Cheap, if the estimates hold
Hims traded at about 18x forward earnings at the last close, near the bottom of its three-year range, and lower after today. I’d want 2027’s guidance, due early next year, to show the extra revenue turning into EBITDA dollars before buying. Of course, if Zepbound and Foundayo bring subscribers back this quarter, this cut could look like the low point.
So what is Hims & Hers stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Hims & Hers could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
