Introducing Valuation Models! 
Key Takeaways:
- ASML stock could reasonably reach €1,061/share by the end of 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- That implies a 56.7% total return from today’s price of €678/share, with an annualized return of 19.7% over the next 2.5 years.
- ASML plays a vital role in the semiconductor supply chain as the only producer of advanced EUV lithography machines, giving it a near-monopoly in a critical part of chip production.
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ASML (ASML) is a Dutch semiconductor equipment company that supplies cutting-edge lithography machines to the world’s top chipmakers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.
The company benefits from long-term tailwinds in global chip demand, strong pricing power, and a highly defensible position thanks to its unmatched technological moat.
With a backlog of orders, solid margins, and continued demand for its most advanced tools, ASML remains one of the most compelling compounders in the semiconductor sector.
Here’s why the stock could return nearly 20% per year through 2027 and potentially continue to do so through 2030.
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What the Model Says for ASML Stock
We ran a valuation forecast on ASML using TIKR’s Valuation Model to estimate its upside through the end of 2027.
Based on assumptions of 11.7% annual revenue growth, 35.8% operating margins, and a 29.4x P/E multiple, the model estimates ASML stock could rise from €678/share to €1,061/share.
That represents a 56.7% total return and a 19.7% annualized return over the next 2.5 years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ASML stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 11.7% CAGR through 2028
ASML has grown revenue by 2.6% over the past year and 19.0% annually over the last five years. We used a 11.7% forecast to reflect the long-term growth potential of the semiconductor industry, tempered by potential short-term volatility and macroeconomic headwinds.
2. Operating Margins: 35.8%
ASML’s EBIT margins have averaged around 31.9% over the last five years. We projected an improvement to 35.8% as the company ramps up production of EUV machines, which carry stronger pricing power and higher margins.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 29.4x
ASML currently trades at a forward P/E of 29.4x, which is roughly in line with its recent historical average. We maintained this multiple to reflect investor confidence in the company’s technological moat and long-term visibility.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
TIKR’s valuation tool allows investors to test a wide range of outcomes based on how ASML performs through 2030 under different scenarios (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Slower chip demand recovery and margin pressure → 14.3% annual returns
- Mid Case: Solid EUV demand and stable execution → 19.5% annual returns
- High Case: Stronger-than-expected order growth and profitability → 26.4% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, ASML offers strong potential returns, while the upside scenario could deliver outsized gains if tailwinds accelerate.
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TIKR Takeaway
ASML is one of the most strategically important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain, with a near-monopoly in advanced lithography systems used to manufacture cutting-edge chips.
With an estimated 56.7% upside by the end of 2027 and potential annual returns near 20%, ASML stands out as a high-quality compounder with strong growth tailwinds from AI, high-performance computing, and continued chip demand.
This stock is best suited for long-term investors seeking exposure to semiconductor infrastructure, high-margin manufacturing, and a durable competitive moat.
Is ASML stock worth buying today? Use TIKR’s Valuation Model and analyst forecasts to see if it looks undervalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
