Key Takeaways
- General Mills is up 15% in the past month, lifted by Procter & Gamble’s and Kraft Heinz’s quarterly reports while tech stocks sold off.
- General Mills had no news of its own behind the move, and Campbell’s ran even further.
- Analysts expect General Mills’ normalized EPS to fall 13% in fiscal 2027, and the dividend is held flat while the company pays down debt.
- With Wall Street’s average target near the current price, December’s report is the next real test for the stock.
General Mills (GIS) is up 15% in the past month, off the 52-week low it hit the day after naming its next CEO. And it did very little to earn it.
Procter & Gamble (PG) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) did the lifting, and Campbell’s (CPB) has run even further.
Two rivals did the lifting
P&G’s organic sales rose 4% in its September quarter, with volume adding 2 points. It kept its full-year organic sales and EPS outlook on Oct. 22, a day money moved out of tech and into staples. General Mills rose 8% that day, even though its own organic volume fell 1 point last quarter.
On Nov. 4, Kraft Heinz narrowed its 2026 outlook to an organic sales decline of 0.5% to 1.25%. It also agreed to sell its North American coffee business at a $650 million enterprise value, keeping a 30% stake, and CEO Steve Cahillane said on the call that price increases are likely in 2027. Can General Mills do the same? Its organic price/mix was flat last quarter.
Campbell’s is up 20% in the past month, even after it cut its quarterly dividend 36% on Sept. 3 to pay down debt faster.
The dividend is on hold
General Mills held its dividend instead, even though the payout took 85% of free cash flow over the twelve months to Aug. 30. Net debt was 3.7x EBITDA in fiscal 2026 (the year to May), above the company’s 3x target. CFO Kofi Bruce said on September’s first-quarter call: “we remain fully committed to our dividend, and in the near term, we expect to maintain the current rate per share while we prioritize deleverage.”
At $2.44 a year, the dividend yields 6.8% at Wednesday’s close.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on General Mills. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on General Mills, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See General Mills’ Analyst Ratings
December Has to Back Up the Rally
Management guides fiscal 2027 adjusted operating profit down 8% to 13% in constant currency. Analysts see normalized EPS falling from $3.55 in fiscal 2026 to $3.08 before it edges back up:
The stock still trades well below its own history, at 11x forward earnings on Nov. 2 (about 12x after Wednesday’s jump), against a 15x average over five years:
But Wall Street’s average target of about $37 sits right around today’s price.
With little room left to the Street’s target, the 6.8% yield is most of what the stock offers at this price. December’s report, the last before Dana McNabb takes over as CEO on Jan. 1, has to show whether North America Retail’s volume can turn up, and whether General Mills can raise prices without losing shoppers. Until then, the rally rests on other companies’ quarters.
So what is General Mills stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
