Key Takeaways for Formula One Group Stock as of July 2026
- Sixteen analysts cover Formula One Group stock, and 14 rate it a buy or outperform against 2 holds and zero sells, putting the $116 mean target 18% above the current $99 price.
- TIKR’s mid-case model puts Formula One Group stock at $165 by December 2030, a 67% total return from today’s price and 12% annualized over 4.5 years.
- Following April’s cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix, second-quarter EBITDA is projected to fall 31% year over year, with a rescheduled late-season race still the swing factor for how much of that gap closes before December 31.
Formula One Stock Jumps 59% in Revenue, Then Hits a Calendar Snag
Formula One Group (FWONK) runs the Formula One World Championship and MotoGP racing series, earning revenue from race promotion fees, media rights and sponsorships.
First-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 59% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $180 million, up 148%, as reported on the May 7 earnings call.
That surge mostly reflects a favorable calendar. The quarter carried three races instead of two a year earlier, with Japan added back into the mix this time.
Even so, the picture flips hard in the second quarter. Formula One Group and the FIA canceled the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix in April given the conflict in the Middle East, trimming the 2026 calendar to 22 races from 24.
The shift is projected to pull second-quarter EBITDA down 31% year over year to roughly $250 million, since the quarter will run just 5 races instead of last year’s 9. Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer Brian Wendling addressed the underlying cost trend directly on the Q1 earnings call: “We continue to expect to see an average of roughly 200 basis point improvement in leverage, in line with the average we’ve seen over the past 4 years.” That guidance, still intact despite the calendar disruption, points toward margin gains stretching well past this year’s swings.
On the commercial side, Apple TV’s first season as the exclusive U.S. media partner is drawing a younger, more female audience across the opening races. Formula One Group also locked in a 5-year Sky renewal through 2034 in the UK and 2032 in Italy, markets where Sky viewership has already climbed 90% since 2019.
Wall Street Stays Bullish on Formula One Stock Despite the Calendar Noise
Eleven of the 16 analysts covering Formula One Group stock rate it a buy, with 3 more at outperform and 2 at hold, and none at sell. The mean target sits at $116, 18% above the current $99 price, while the median runs slightly higher at $118 and the high estimate reaches $135.
That spread has held steady since the second quarter of 2026, even as the stock slid from $85 in March back toward $99 today.
Wall Street Expects FWONK Stock’s EBITDA to Rebound 62% by Mid-2027
Formula One Group posted EBITDA of $180 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 148% year over year on the extra race and favorable revenue timing.
Wall Street projects that figure to fall to $250 million in the second quarter, a 31% decline from a year ago.
The estimate then climbs to $360 million in the third quarter and $420 million by year end, gains of 22% and 29% year over year, before margins push toward 30% on a projected $410 million EBITDA figure by the second quarter of 2027, a 62% increase.
Whether Formula One Group reschedules the postponed Middle East race before December 31 will decide how much of that projected recovery shows up within this fiscal year.
TIKR’s Model Puts FWONK Stock’s Target at $165
TIKR’s mid-case model values Formula One Group stock at $165 by December 2030, implying a 67% total return from the current price of $99, or 12% annualized over 4.5 years.
That return points to a business compounding revenue growth, margin expansion and capital allocation together, not to any single lever carrying the target on its own.
The path is backed by a calendar locked through 2027 and a Sky renewal running through 2034 in the UK and 2032 in Italy, both locking in revenue that funds the model’s assumptions.
Management’s own guidance for team-payment leverage adds another layer, with EBITDA margins already trending toward 30% as one thread in that broader picture, not the reason the target holds.
Should You Invest in Formula One Group?
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