Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly shares rose 5% after third-quarter revenue jumped 39% to $24.4 billion and it raised 2026 revenue guidance by $5.5 billion at the midpoint.
- Volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%, and gross margin held up, so that trade is still paying off.
- About $900 million of the quarter’s revenue was one-time, and deal charges cut full-year EPS guidance.
- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers both report in early November, and Lilly’s price cuts weigh on each.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is up 5% today after a third quarter that beat Wall Street’s estimates, plus a $5.5 billion raise to its full-year revenue guidance.
That matters for Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), too: Lilly keeps cutting GLP-1 prices, and it keeps winning more than enough new patients to make up for it.
Volume is doing the heavy lifting
Lilly beat across the board:
- Revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, against the $22.6 billion analysts expected.
- Non-GAAP EPS was $7.48, against $6.61 expected.
- Mounjaro sales rose 65% to $10.7 billion, and Zepbound’s rose 49% to $5.4 billion.
- 2026 revenue guidance is now $91-$92 billion, up from $85-$87 billion and above the $88.7 billion consensus.
Volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%. Outside the US, prices fell 29%, mostly because Mounjaro was added to China’s national reimbursement drug list, and volume there jumped 76%.
That trade has driven a steep climb in quarterly revenue:
The price cuts haven’t dented Lilly’s gross margin, either:
Third-quarter gross margin was 83.9%, up a point from a year earlier, which Lilly credits to product mix and cheaper production.
The beat isn’t entirely clean. About $900 million of the quarter’s revenue came from one-time benefits, including the last $410 million of Jardiance milestones. And $4.57 a share of acquired research charges from its deals pulled full-year EPS guidance down to $35.00-$36.00, even as revenue guidance rose.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Eli Lilly. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Eli Lilly, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Eli Lilly’s Analyst Ratings
Novo and Hims feel the price cuts
Novo’s own numbers show the other side of that trade. Its US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 22% at constant currency in the second quarter on lower prices, and it expects adjusted sales to be flat to down 6% this year. Can the Wegovy pill keep Novo in the race? Its early-November report should say.
Hims sells GLP-1s to cash-pay patients, and its second-quarter gross margin fell to 64% from 76% a year earlier as revenue grew 38%. Do cheaper GLP-1s bring Hims more subscribers, or squeeze that margin further? Its Nov. 9 report is the first read.
The upshot
For me, this quarter settles the big question on Lilly for now: volume is still outrunning price. Of course, prices keep falling, and Lilly’s long-term targets at its Dec. 7 investor update are the next test.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
