Key Takeaways
- David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital raised its Viatris (VTRS) stake 53% in the quarter ended June 30, while Invenomic Capital Management, a $3.4 billion firm, cut its stake 46%.
- Viatris is up 21% since June 30, and in August it raised its 2026 guidance. Analysts expect its earnings to grow in each of the next three years.
- At 7.3x forward earnings, the stock trades near the top of its five-year range and 6% below the $20 consensus target.
- Einhorn looks right on the business, but the stock’s next gains have to come from earnings, and its Q3 report is due in the next few days.
Two funds took opposite sides of Viatris in the same quarter, and the stock has moved a long way since.
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital raised its Viatris stake 53% in the quarter ended June 30, according to its 13F filed Aug. 14.
Invenomic Capital Management, which manages $3.4 billion, cut its stake 46% in the same quarter. Its 13F was filed the same day.
Einhorn added, Invenomic trimmed
Greenlight ended June with 2.77 million Viatris shares worth $44 million. That was 1.1% of its 13F holdings and its 33rd-largest of 46 positions.
Einhorn isn’t new to this one, either: his letter to investors at the time said Greenlight first bought Viatris in Q4 of 2023.
After its cut, Invenomic held 1.74 million shares worth $28 million. That was 1.6% of its 13F holdings and its 18th-largest of 115 positions.
So even after selling almost half its shares, Invenomic still had more of its 13F in Viatris than Greenlight did (in terms of % holding).
These are both funds’ latest filings, as of June 30. A 13F doesn’t say when in the quarter a fund traded, what it paid, or why, and it shows no short positions.
Their 13Fs for the September quarter are due by Nov. 16.
TIKR tracks 12 analysts on Viatris. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Viatris, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Viatris’ Analyst Ratings
The earnings are turning back up
So far, Einhorn’s trade looks like the better one: Viatris is up 21% since June 30. (That’s the stock’s move from the quarter-end price. We don’t know what either fund paid, or whether either still holds the same stake.)
Viatris gave investors plenty to work with over the summer. Its Q2 release on Aug. 6 reported revenue of $3.8 billion, up 3.5% from a year earlier, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance range.
It also returned about $550 million to shareholders in the quarter, partly through buybacks, and cut its gross leverage ratio to 2.9x.
Analysts expect that to show up in earnings. Normalized EPS fell from $2.93 in fiscal 2023 to $2.35 in fiscal 2025, and the consensus has it climbing in each of the next three years, to $2.90 in fiscal 2028:
That would put earnings back near the 2023 level. But only six analysts have an estimate that far out, against 11 for 2026 and 2027.
Most of the re-rating has happened
The catch is that the stock has already gone a long way toward pricing that in. Viatris trades at 7.3x forward earnings. That’s well above its five-year average of 4.3x and close to the 7.5x high it hit on Oct. 29:
That’s still cheap for a company analysts expect to grow earnings three years running. But for most of the past five years, Viatris traded far below it.
Wall Street has been chasing the stock, too. The consensus target has climbed from $12 a year ago to $20 today, while the stock went from $10.53 to $18.92:
At $18.92, that leaves 7% of upside to the average target of the 12 analysts who cover Viatris. The highest target is $26, and the lowest is $14.
Einhorn has the better side of this one
The way I see it, Einhorn is right. Earnings are expected to grow again, management raised its guidance and is buying back stock, and 7.3x forward earnings is a low price for all of that.
The risk is that the recovery so far exists only in the estimates. Fiscal 2025’s $2.35 is the last full year Viatris has reported, and it was the lowest of the past three.
Invenomic’s trim isn’t hard to understand, either. The multiple is near its five-year high, and the stock is close to the Street’s average target.
From here, the next leg up has to come from earnings, so Viatris looks like a slower story than it did in June.
Viatris is expected to report its Q3 in the next few days. If that report keeps the raised 2026 guidance on track, Einhorn’s add will look even better.
The funds’ September-quarter 13Fs will show whether Invenomic kept selling.
So what is Viatris stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
