Introducing Valuation Models! 
Key Takeaways:
- Nike stock could reasonably reach $98/share by the end of 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 28% from today’s price of $76/share, with an annualized return of 9% over the next 2.8 years.
- Nike operates as the world’s leading athletic footwear and apparel company through its Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands, serving athletes and consumers globally.
Nike (NKE) is a multinational corporation that has evolved from a running shoe company to the world’s largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel, serving both elite athletes and everyday consumers through its powerful brand portfolio.
Through its Nike brand for performance and lifestyle products, Jordan for premium basketball culture, and Converse for casual footwear, Nike has created an integrated ecosystem that spans sports, fashion, and cultural expression across multiple channels and price points.
Nike benefits from its unmatched global distribution network with 40,000 points of distribution across nearly 190 countries, strong athlete partnerships, and innovative product development capabilities that consistently drive consumer demand and brand loyalty.
With strategic initiatives such as the “Win Now” actions, focusing on sport-led innovation, marketplace cleanup, and the upcoming “sport offense” organizational restructuring, Nike continues to reposition itself for sustainable growth while addressing current market challenges.
With a robust product pipeline featuring breakthrough innovations in running, basketball, and global football, Nike maintains its position as the industry leader while implementing necessary changes to return to profitable growth through 2028 and beyond.
Here’s why NKE stock could return 9% annually through 2028 and continue delivering strong performance through 2030.
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What the Model Says for Nike Stock
We analyzed Nike’s upside using valuation assumptions based on the company’s execution of its Win Now strategy and sport-focused organizational transformation.
Based on estimates of 3% annual revenue growth, 10% operating margins, and stable valuation multiples, the model projects NKE stock could rise from $76/share to $98/share.
That represents a 28% total return and a 9% annualized return over the next 2.8 years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Nike stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 3%
Nike delivered challenging results in fiscal 2025 as revenue declined year over year. However, the footwear manufacturer is implementing comprehensive Win Now actions to reposition the business for growth.
Management expects business results to improve as they execute their sport offense strategy, clean up inventory, and launch innovative products across the running, basketball, and football categories.
We used a 3% forecast reflecting Nike’s conservative near-term outlook while incorporating potential upside from new product launches, distribution expansion, including the Amazon partnership, and the successful execution of marketplace cleanup initiatives.
2. Operating Margins: 10%
Nike demonstrates a historical track record of double-digit operating margins despite current pressures from inventory liquidation and marketplace repositioning.
A focus on premium positioning, reduced promotional activity, and operational efficiency improvements through their Win Now actions positions them for margin recovery and expansion.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 33x
NKE stock trades at reasonable multiples for a leading global brand with multiple growth vectors and strong competitive moats.
We maintain current valuation levels given Nike’s dominant market position, innovative product pipeline, and long-term growth potential as marketplace conditions normalize.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
TIKR’s valuation tool allows investors to test a wide range of outcomes based on how NKE stock performs through 2030 under different scenarios (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Prolonged marketplace challenges and execution difficulties → 5% annual returns
- Mid Case: Successful Win Now implementation and steady growth recovery → 9% annual returns
- High Case: Strong innovation cycle and market share gains → 13% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Nike stock offers mid-single-digit returns, while the upside scenario could deliver attractive performance if the company successfully executes its sports offense vision and captures market opportunities in key categories, such as women’s sports and international expansion.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
