Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave is down 51% since June 30, the quarter-end of the 13F in which David Tepper’s Appaloosa first reported owning it.
- It’s the worst of Appaloosa’s buys from that quarter: Meta is up 14% since then, Uber is down 3%, and Taiwan Semiconductor and Boeing are down 17% and 20%.
- Analysts expect CoreWeave’s revenue to more than double in 2027, but its interest bill still runs well ahead of its operating profit.
- At 1.4x forward sales, Tepper looks early as long as CoreWeave can keep borrowing, and Appaloosa’s next 13F, due Nov. 16, will show whether the fund held on.
David Tepper’s Appaloosa has to file its next 13F by Nov. 16. One of the two new stocks in its last filing has more than halved since: CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 51% from June 30, the date that filing covers, through Tuesday’s close.
Appaloosa manages $20.4 billion. Its 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 14, reported 1.08 million CoreWeave shares worth $107 million, a new position at 1.4% of its 13F stocks. That 51% is the stock’s move since quarter-end. Appaloosa’s own return could be different, because the filing doesn’t show what it paid or whether it still owns the shares.
TIKR tracks 42 analysts on CoreWeave. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CoreWeave, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CoreWeave’s Analyst Ratings
Meta leads Tepper’s buys since June 30
CoreWeave is the worst performer of the seven stocks Appaloosa bought or added to in the quarter, and most of its bigger buys are down too. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is its third-largest position, at 10.5% of its 13F stocks after a 24% increase in shares. It’s down 17% since June 30, even though its third-quarter revenue rose 41% to $46.72 billion, above the top of its own guidance. Boeing (BA), a new 2.3% position, is down 20%. On Oct. 27, the company said that getting 737 output steady at 47 jets a month is taking longer than it expected.
Uber (UBER), its fifth-largest position at 7.4%, is down 3% after guiding fourth-quarter earnings below analysts’ estimates on Nov. 4. Meta (META) leads the group, up 14% since June 30. Appaloosa raised that stake 55% in the quarter, to 5.1% of its 13F stocks, and Meta has since reported third-quarter revenue up 26% to $64.6 billion.
Lenders want a lot more to fund CoreWeave
Demand is holding up. CoreWeave’s backlog reached about $132.5 billion at Sept. 30, up from $104.2 billion at June 30.
The money it borrows to buy GPUs before customers pay is another matter. Its unsecured notes carried a 9.00% coupon in July 2025 and 9.75% in April 2026, and its debt now yields 15% or more. In the third quarter, reported after Tuesday’s close, interest expense was $846 million, against adjusted operating income of $379 million, ahead of the $200 million to $260 million management had guided. For the fourth quarter, it expects interest expense of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion.
So CoreWeave doesn’t yet earn enough to cover its interest bill. Its next unsecured bond would also be priced against yields far above what it paid earlier this year.
Do the numbers back Tepper?
Analysts expect CoreWeave’s revenue to more than double next year, to $26.5 billion in 2027, and to reach $43.7 billion in 2028:
None of those sales reach shareholders yet. Going into Tuesday’s report, consensus had CoreWeave losing $4.68 a share in 2027, a wider loss than the $3.69 expected three months earlier, and free cash flow negative every year through 2030.
Investors have priced in a lot of that. CoreWeave trades at 1.4x forward sales, close to the year’s low of 1.2x and well under its 3.5x average:
Analysts’ targets have come down far less than the stock has. The consensus target from 42 analysts is $131.53, down from $143.64 a year ago and 170% above Tuesday’s close:
(The targets run from $39 to $278, a very wide split for one stock.)
Early, if the lenders cooperate
If CoreWeave has to borrow at anything like today’s yields, more of that revenue goes to lenders. And any stock it sells to avoid that, such as through the at-the-market program for up to 35 million shares it set up in the third quarter, dilutes existing holders, Appaloosa included.
Here’s where I land: Tepper looks early. The revenue is contracted and growing, and the buyer base is wider: the largest customer’s share of quarterly revenue fell to 36% in the second quarter, from 71% a year earlier. At 1.4x forward sales, the stock already reflects much of the funding risk. CoreWeave was also a much smaller bet for Appaloosa than Taiwan Semiconductor or Meta.
CoreWeave’s third-quarter results, out after Tuesday’s close, showed adjusted operating income running ahead of plan but still well short of its interest bill, so the lenders still matter. Appaloosa’s 13F, due Nov. 16, will show whether the fund still held the stock at Sept. 30.
So what is CoreWeave stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what CoreWeave could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
