Key Takeaways
- D.A. Davidson cut its Nebius price target to $125 from $250 on Nov. 13 and kept its Neutral rating, with the stock about 59% below its June record close.
- Nebius grew third-quarter revenue 571%, but delays at third-party data centers pushed some planned 2026 revenue into 2027 and moved its run-rate target out to February.
- Analysts still expect $12.4 billion of 2027 revenue but now see a bigger 2027 loss, and Nebius plans $40 billion to $45 billion of capital spending next year.
- D.A. Davidson’s Neutral looks like the right call: its target sits only about 7% above the stock, and Nebius still has money to raise before the delayed capacity comes online.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has lost about 59% since its June 18 record close, and D.A. Davidson just cut its price target in half. On Nov. 13, analyst Gil Luria kept his Neutral rating and lowered his target to $125 from $250, a day after Nebius reported third-quarter results. He blamed data center delays and the weaker run-rate guidance.
Why Nebius Cut Its Guidance
Third-quarter revenue was $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier. About $325 million of that, roughly a third, was revenue the company itself calls non-recurring.
The guidance was the problem. Nebius trimmed its 2026 revenue range to $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion, from $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion. It now expects run-rate revenue above $7 billion for February, after guiding to $7 billion to $9 billion by December. Some third-party sites are behind schedule, including Vineland, New Jersey, where Nebius is building capacity for Microsoft and the site’s operator retired temporary power earlier than planned. The remaining Microsoft tranches there are now due in the second quarter of 2027.
“Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune,” CEO Arkady Volozh said on the third-quarter call.
Nebius also raised its 2026 capital spending plan to about $27 billion and guided to $40 billion to $45 billion for 2027.
TIKR Tracks 22 Analysts on Nebius. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’s Analyst Ratings
Does $125 Add Up?
At about $117 on Friday afternoon, D.A. Davidson’s new target is only about 7% above the stock. The Street’s average target is far higher: it climbed from $161 a year ago to $269 on Nov. 12, about 130% above the price.
Analysts expect $12.4 billion of revenue in 2027, inside management’s first 2027 outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion.
But they now expect a 2027 loss of $6.01 a share, wider than the $4.66 they expected three months ago. The stock traded at 5.9x forward sales at the Nov. 12 close, down from about 13x at the end of June. At Friday afternoon’s price, it’s closer to 5.4x.
Funding Is Nebius’s Bigger Worry
Management expects prepayments and asset-backed financing to cover 75% to 85% of 2027’s capital spending. That still leaves roughly $6 billion to $11 billion to come from its $7.4 billion of cash, new debt or new stock. Selling stock costs more now, too: Nebius sold 4.6 million shares at an average of $229.10 in the third quarter, and at about $117, the same money now takes nearly twice as many shares.
That’s why D.A. Davidson’s Neutral looks right to me. Loss estimates are getting worse, the funding gap is real, and the low multiple only pays off if the delayed capacity arrives. The first check is the fourth-quarter report in early 2027. The bigger one is whether the New Jersey tranches land in the second quarter of 2027 as promised.
So What Is Nebius Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
