Key Stats for CSW Industrial Stock
- Current Price: ~$280 (May 26)
- Q4 FY2026 Revenue: $309M, up 34% YoY
- Q4 FY2026 Adjusted EPS: $3.14, up 40% YoY
- Q4 FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $83M, up 39% YoY; margin 26.8%
- Full-Year Revenue: Crossed $1B milestone (FY2026)
- FY2027 Guidance: Revenue growth across all segments; significant adjusted EPS growth; strong FCF growth
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$406
- Implied Upside: ~45%
CSW Industrials Crosses $1B, Beats Q4 Estimates, but Acquisition Costs Are Still in the Numbers
CSW Industrials (CSW), a supplier of HVAC/R parts, plumbing components, and specialty chemicals, reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $309M, beating the $299M Street estimate by 3.3% and growing 34% year-over-year. The result gave CSW Industrials stock its first $1 billion annual revenue milestone, a decade after the company’s spin-off as an independent public company.
Adjusted EPS for Q4 reached $3.14, beating the $2.34 Street estimate by 34% and growing 40% from the $2.24 reported in the prior year. EPS growth trailed revenue and EBITDA because net interest expense of $13.4M in Q4 reflected the shift from net cash to net debt after deploying approximately $1B into acquisitions.
Record adjusted EBITDA of $83M, up 39%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin 90 basis points to 26.8%, while acquisition dilution compressed adjusted gross margin 70 basis points to 43.5%.
Contractor Solutions generated $237M in Q4 revenue, up 43%, with MARS Parts and Aspen Manufacturing contributing $67M of acquisition-driven growth. Joseph Armes, Chairman and CEO, stated on the Q4 earnings call that “Aspen has grown 13.5% since the time of acquisition, May 1 of last year, significantly outperforming the market.”
Specialized Reliability Solutions grew Q4 revenue 22.4% to $46M, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 640 basis points to 21.8%, driven by higher-margin acquisitions, pricing actions, and early restructuring benefits.
CSW Industrials stock enters fiscal 2027 after a $15.6M Greco impairment, with management guiding for revenue growth across all three segments, significant adjusted EPS growth, and strong free cash flow generation.
TIKR’s $406 Target on CSW Industrials Stock Requires Synergy Delivery and a Multiple Rerating
TIKR’s mid-case values CSW Industrials stock at approximately $406, representing a total return of 45% from the current price of approximately $280 over near 6 years, or 8% annualized.
If MARS Parts hits its 30% EBITDA margin target by November and Aspen sustains its post-acquisition growth, the mid case lands at approximately $446 and a 5.4% IRR.
A slower integration where synergies track on schedule but don’t beat it puts CSW Industrials stock at approximately $366 and a 3.1% IRR — a return integration execution alone could close without a housing recovery or rate cut.
The high case at approximately $536 and a 7.6% IRR requires residential HVAC replacement demand to recover, a catalyst management acknowledged could take one to two years.
Should You Invest in CSW Industrials, Inc.?
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