Key Takeaways
- Coupang stock jumped 12% today after third-quarter revenue beat estimates and Citi upgraded the shares to Buy.
- Even without a July warehouse fire, Coupang’s margins fell hard, so the rally is a bet on lost shoppers returning.
- Management guided to 13%-14% constant-currency growth and a better EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter.
- Lost shoppers spent elsewhere for a while, a question for Alibaba and PDD Holdings this month.
Coupang (CPNG) stock jumped 12% today on a third-quarter revenue beat and a Citi upgrade to Buy.
That’s despite a July fire at a Korean warehouse that cost $248 million. CEO Bom Kim said the soft spot is a small group of members who left after Coupang’s data incident and haven’t come back. Even the ones who returned spent a while “allocating their retail wallets elsewhere.” I’d guess some of that went to rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and PDD Holdings (PDD).
What exactly happened
Here’s what Coupang reported after Tuesday’s close:
- Revenue of $9.96 billion, up 11% in constant currency, beating its 8%-9% guide and the $9.76 billion analysts expected
- Adjusted EBITDA of $116 million, down from $413 million a year earlier
On the call, Kim said “Product Commerce is tracking towards the mid-next-year recovery we laid out last quarter.” Management guided to 13%-14% constant-currency growth in the fourth quarter, with the adjusted EBITDA margin up 50-150 basis points from the third quarter’s 1.2%.
Analysts already expected EBITDA to fall to $630 million this year, from $1.49 billion in 2025, then rebound to $1.84 billion in 2027:
Nothing in the guide makes me expect cuts to 2027.
The fire was only part of it
Without the fire’s costs, Coupang’s operating loss was $202 million, against a $162 million profit a year earlier. Product Commerce’s gross margin was 29.5%, down from 32.1%.
Company-wide gross margin was already slipping before the fire, to 28.2% in the June quarter from 30.0% a year earlier:
The third quarter’s 25.7% (26.7% without the fire) is lower than any quarter on the chart.
TIKR tracks 18 analysts on Coupang. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coupang, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coupang’s Analyst Ratings
Coupang wants its shoppers back
Alibaba, which runs AliExpress, and PDD, which runs Temu, both report later this month. Neither breaks out Korea. But Alibaba’s international commerce loss narrowed to RMB 2.1 billion in the year ended March 2026, from RMB 15.1 billion, and PDD’s transaction services revenue grew 13% in the second quarter. If Coupang keeps winning members back, any lift those two got in Korea should fade.
Here’s where I land: today’s jump is investors buying the comeback early, and the guide gives them good reason to.
Of course, Coupang’s fourth-quarter report early next year is the first real test of that recovery.
So what is Coupang stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
