Key Takeaways
- Scotiabank reiterated its $26 target on SoFi Technologies on Nov. 9. That’s 59% above today’s price, with the stock 49% below its high of a year ago.
- SoFi raised its 2026 outlook and guided to $0.90 of EPS in 2027, and analysts’ 2027 estimate has climbed to match.
- Scotiabank’s target works out to about 31x forward earnings, against about 20x at the last close, while SoFi plans for rate hikes that cut the value of the loans it holds.
- The Street’s $21 average target looks like the likelier landing over the next year, and the Fed’s Dec. 9 meeting and fourth-quarter results in late January are the next tests.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is 49% below its high of a year ago, despite a beat-and-raise quarter. Scotiabank thinks the market has it wrong: on Nov. 9, it reiterated its Sector Outperform rating and its $26 price target, 59% above today’s price.
Rates went the wrong way
SoFi sold $1.5 billion of new stock at $27.50 in December 2025, its second raise of the year. In March, short seller Muddy Waters accused it of understating its loan losses, which SoFi called “factually inaccurate and misleading.”
Then rates moved against SoFi. “Our original 2026 guidance assumed 2 rate cuts. Instead, we’ve already had one rate hike,” CEO Anthony Noto said on SoFi’s third-quarter call on Oct. 27.
That hurts because SoFi keeps most of its loans at fair value: $9 billion of its $12.6 billion of third-quarter personal loans went on its own balance sheet. CFO Chris Lapointe said higher rates cut the marks on its loans by over $800 million, though about $734 million of hedge gains made up most of it.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on SoFi. How many say “Buy”?
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Scotiabank thinks 2027 is the floor
Scotiabank analyst Lance Jessurun raised his target to $26 from $25 on Oct. 28. SoFi’s adjusted net revenue rose 44% to $1.4 billion, and it raised its 2026 outlook anyway. It also guided a quarter early to $0.90 of EPS in 2027, on 27% revenue growth, in a plan that already assumes two rate hikes.
Scotiabank said those 2027 figures are likely a floor unless the economy changes materially. Lapointe added that the plan needs no new stock: “no capital raise is assumed or needed.”
Can SoFi earn its way to $26?
The Street is less sure: the 25 analysts who cover SoFi have an average target of $21, 27% above today’s price, down from $26 a year ago:
Estimates are moving Scotiabank’s way, though. Analysts now expect $0.90 of EPS in 2027, up from $0.82 a month ago, and $1.14 in 2028:
At the last close, SoFi traded at about 20x the $0.84 a share analysts expect over the next 12 months. Scotiabank’s $26 works out to about 31x. SoFi averaged about 33x over the past year. That year started with the stock above $30 and, by January, a plan built on two rate cuts.
Closer to $21 than $26
Lending brought in about $807 million of SoFi’s $1.4 billion of third-quarter adjusted net revenue, and each rate hike cuts the value of the loans SoFi keeps.
Scotiabank has the business right: SoFi keeps beating its own numbers, and the estimates are climbing to match. But a 59% gain in a year needs investors to pay what they paid when SoFi expected rate cuts, while it plans for hikes. I’d expect SoFi to land closer to the Street’s $21.
The Fed’s Dec. 9 meeting is the next test for those loan marks, then fourth-quarter results in late January. A December hold and a fourth quarter that keeps $0.90 intact would make $26 a lot easier to believe.
So what is SoFi stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
