Key Takeaways
- AppLovin stock jumped about 27% on Nov. 5 after third-quarter revenue rose 55% to $2.18 billion and fourth-quarter guidance beat expectations.
- Wedbush kept its Outperform rating and raised its price target to $600, about 74% above today’s price.
- On 2028 consensus earnings of $24.27 a share, $600 works out to about 25x, in line with the stock’s 5-year average forward multiple.
- The multiple isn’t the stretch in Wedbush’s call. The earnings are, and management won’t promise when the next model gains land.
AppLovin (APP) stock is up about 27% today, trading at about $345, after record third-quarter results on Nov. 4. Even after the jump, shares sit about 53% below their December 2025 closing high.
Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating the next morning and raised its price target to $600 from $560, about 74% above where the stock trades now.
Why AppLovin Stock Fell First
AppLovin’s growth comes in steps, each time its ad models improve. In the second quarter, those steps stalled. Revenue rose 4.4% from the first quarter, the smallest of its last five sequential gains, and CEO Adam Foroughi said on the August call that the company’s “pace of meaningful model improvement was lighter than normal.”
The push beyond games hit a wall too. Foroughi said AppLovin still couldn’t put a high-quality 30- to 60-second video “in the hand of an advertiser out of the box.” UBS cut its target to $414 from $790 on Oct. 28, citing slower consumer growth, and a securities class action alleges AppLovin misled investors about its AI models and video tools.
AppLovin’s Models Are Delivering Again
Third-quarter revenue beat the top of guidance by about $100 million, as a partial rollout of new models pushed gaming growth to nearly 50%. Consumer advertiser spend grew triple digits from a year ago.
Fourth-quarter guidance of $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion came in well above the $2.25 billion analysts expected, and the board added $3.2 billion to the buyback.
TIKR Tracks 33 Analysts on AppLovin. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AppLovin, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AppLovin’s Analyst Ratings
Does Wedbush’s $600 Add Up?
The Street was moving the other way before the report. The consensus target fell from $649 a year ago to $448, and Wedbush’s $600 sits 34% above it:
Analysts still expect earnings to rise every year, from $16.65 a share in 2026 to $24.27 in 2028:
Those estimates came before a fourth-quarter guide that far above expectations, so they have more room to rise than fall.
At the Nov. 2 close, AppLovin traded at 12x forward earnings, against a 5-year average of 25x:
A 12-month target should be judged on the earnings a year out. On 2028 EPS, $600 is about 25x, right at that average. The Street’s $448 is about 18x, and today’s $345 is about 17x 2027 earnings.
AppLovin’s February Report Is the Real Test
Wedbush isn’t asking for a stretched multiple, just the stock’s normal one, so the debate is about earnings. That makes $600 reachable, but I wouldn’t bank on all of it within a year. Foroughi said on the Q3 call that the company “won’t promise the cadence” of model gains.
Fourth-quarter results, expected in February, come first. Revenue near the $2.395 billion top of the guide, and 2027 estimates moving above $20.01, would put the stock on Wedbush’s path.
So What Is AppLovin Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what AppLovin could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
