Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave fell 3% today after Democrats won Congress and the Texas governor’s race, on fears of tighter data center rules.
- IREN, whose AI build runs through Texas, and Nebius fell on the same fears.
- New laws still need President Trump’s signature, so lenders are CoreWeave’s bigger risk.
- Its Nov. 10 report, with interest guided well above adjusted operating income, is the next test.
CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 3% today, as investors sold AI data center stocks after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress and the Texas governor’s race in Tuesday’s midterms. IREN (IREN) dropped 4%, and Nebius (NBIS) fell 0.4%.
“Assuming a more restrictive data center development environment, this could create incrementally more negative sentiment for AI infrastructure exposed names,” Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note.
The contracts are already signed
A Democratic Congress can’t tear up CoreWeave’s contracts: its backlog was $104.2 billion at June 30. Analysts expect revenue to climb from $5.13 billion in 2025 to $43.6 billion in 2028.
But that forecast counts on 2027 and 2028 capacity that isn’t built yet, and 88% of CoreWeave’s long-lived assets were in the US at the end of 2025.
Lenders matter more than lawmakers
Management guided third-quarter interest expense of $860 million to $940 million, against adjusted operating income of $200 million to $260 million, and its 9.625% notes due 2032 fell below 80 cents on the dollar in mid-October. Lenders who hear that new data centers could be delayed will want more for the next loan.
TIKR tracks 42 analysts on CoreWeave. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CoreWeave, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CoreWeave’s Analyst Ratings
IREN and Nebius have their own questions
IREN’s $9.7 billion Microsoft contract is served from its Childress campus in Texas, and its 2027 expansion adds Sweetwater 1, the West Texas site it energized in May. Will a new governor’s rules reach sites that already have grid power?
For Nebius, the question is funding. When it signed a $3.5 billion Citi loan on Oct. 22, Nebius said it can still borrow against more than $40 billion of long-term contracts with investment-grade customers. Does that backing hold up if US rules tighten? Its Nov. 12 report is the first chance to find out.
The real test comes Nov. 10
For now, the election hurts sentiment more than CoreWeave’s business: any bill still needs Trump’s signature, and management says its near-term capacity is effectively sold out. The stock traded at 1.4x forward sales as of Monday, its lowest in the past year and well under its 3.6x average.
At today’s price, it’s even lower. If CoreWeave hits both guides on Nov. 10, the drop looks overdone. If its next unsecured bond prices well above June’s 9.625% coupon, today’s sellers had it right.
So what is CoreWeave stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
