Key Takeaways
- Coinbase shares fell 9% today as Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 in a broad market sell-off.
- Coinbase fell almost three times as far as the S&P 500 because its fees and earnings move with Bitcoin.
- Analysts expect a small loss in 2026 and don’t see earnings back to 2025’s level until 2028.
- The stock still trades at a steep forward multiple, so I’d wait for crypto trading to recover.
Coinbase Global (COIN) sank 9% today without a word of news from the company. Bitcoin fell below $76,000 by early afternoon as the post-election rally in stocks unwound.
The S&P 500 fell 4%, and Bitcoin was down about 5%.
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A bet on Bitcoin, with leverage
Coinbase fell about twice as far as Bitcoin and almost three times as far as the S&P 500, and its results show why.
Transaction fees made up nearly half of its $1.22 billion of third-quarter revenue, and they rise and fall with crypto trading: transaction revenue fell 44% from a year earlier to $590 million. Coinbase also holds Bitcoin itself, and gains on its crypto investments supplied about $715 million of its $719 million of third-quarter net income. So when Bitcoin falls, Coinbase gets hit twice.
Analysts expect a small loss this year, and they don’t see earnings per share back at 2025’s level until 2028:
If Bitcoin stays below $76,000, I’d expect that 2027 estimate to keep falling. It’s already down to $2.47, from $2.84 a month ago.
The average price target is now $199, about half the $386 of a year ago:
Robinhood took the same hit
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) fell 11%, also with no news of its own, though crypto matters far less to it. Its cryptocurrency revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million in the third quarter. That’s less than a tenth of its record $1.42 billion, and options, stocks and event contracts drove its growth.
On crypto alone, that drop looks overdone. But options and prediction markets are trades too, and they cool off when investors pull back from risk. Robinhood’s next report, in February, will show us whether they did.
I’d wait for the trades to come back
I wouldn’t buy this drop on its own. The stock traded at about 85x forward earnings at the last close, and at that price I’d want to see trading recover first.
Of course, Bitcoin can turn fast: it was above $80,000 just yesterday.
So what is Coinbase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
