Key Takeaways
- Lucid Group stock is down 78% over the past year, and on Nov. 11 Citi cut its price target to $9 from $11 and kept its Buy rating.
- Citi’s $9 is 138% above today’s price and 37% above the $7 consensus target, which has fallen from about $24 a year ago.
- The target asks for just 1.5x forward sales, but about $4.9 billion of debt and loans and $3.07 billion of preferred stock rank ahead of common shareholders.
- Lucid is unlikely to reach $9 in the next year, and full-year results in late February, with 2027 guidance, are the next test.
Lucid Group (LCID) has lost 78% of its value over the past year, and analysts spent this week cutting their targets after its third-quarter report. Citi’s new $9 target still sits 138% above today’s price of $3.78.
Fewer cars, more borrowing
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles in the third quarter, down 7% from a year earlier, as the US electric-vehicle market shrank 41% after federal EV tax credits ended. Free cash flow improved 30% from the second quarter but was still -$1.04 billion. So Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), Lucid’s largest investor, added $1.75 billion to its loan, which Lucid says funds it into the fourth quarter of 2027.
Citi still says Buy
Citi analyst Michael Ward kept his Buy rating on Nov. 11 and cut his target to $9 from $11, pointing to the improved cash burn. It’s his third cut since he initiated coverage at $17 in March. The biggest launch he was counting on, Midsize, Lucid’s lower-priced platform, has since slipped from a late-2026 start to production in the second half of 2027.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Lucid. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Lucid, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Lucid’s Analyst Ratings
The sales math is the easy part
The average target from the 11 analysts covering Lucid has fallen from about $24 a year ago to $7, which is still 74% above the price. This chart tracks the consensus target over the past year.
Those targets depend on a steep climb in sales. Analysts expect revenue to more than double in 2027, to $3.32 billion, and to double again in 2028, to $6.71 billion.
That’s a lot to ask of a car that isn’t due to start production until the second half of 2027. But if analysts are right, $9 is just 1.5x the sales they expect per share over the next twelve months. Lucid trades at 0.6x, near its five-year low, against a five-year average of 10x.
PIF gets paid first
A sales multiple prices the whole business, though, and common shareholders are last in line. Lucid’s debt and loans came to about $4.9 billion in early October, and its preferred stock carried $3.07 billion of liquidation preference at June 30, all of it ranking ahead of the common shares. Consensus has free cash flow negative through 2030, so I’d expect the money that carries Lucid past 2027 to bring more debt ahead of shareholders and more shares.
So I don’t see the stock reaching $9 in the next year. Full-year results, expected in late February, bring 2027 guidance, and Midsize’s production date is due in the first quarter. A firm date and a funding plan that doesn’t add to PIF’s claims would make $9 look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Lucid stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
