Key Takeaways
- Cipher Digital fell 21% today after Keefe Bruyette downgraded it on Gina Hinojosa’s win in the Texas governor race, and TeraWulf fell too.
- Hinojosa campaigned on halting Texas data centers, and every Cipher campus is in Texas.
- Riot Platforms announced a $28 billion Texas lease with a frontier AI lab the same morning.
- Analysts expect Cipher’s growth beyond 2028 to come from Texas leases it hasn’t signed yet.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) sank 21% today after Keefe Bruyette’s Stephen Glagola downgraded it to Market Perform from Outperform and cut his target to $9.50 from $11. The firm tied the call to Gina Hinojosa’s win over Greg Abbott in Tuesday’s Texas governor race.
The sell-off reached TeraWulf (WULF). Riot Platforms (RIOT) went the other way on a big Texas lease.
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Every Cipher lease is in Texas
Cipher’s three signed campuses carry $16.6 billion of contracted revenue as of Sept. 30, and analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple in 2027 as that rent arrives:
But most of its 4.4-gigawatt pipeline is unleased, with no new lease since March. Abbott had already paused new data center connections to the Texas grid in August, pending an audit.
Hinojosa wants to go further. She called for a halt on Texas data centers until lawmakers pass protections, telling a Dallas crowd last month that “people are big mad in Texas about the data centers.”
KBW had cut to $11 from $28 just on Monday, warning of a drought in new leases. The Street’s average target had slid to $28 by Monday, from a $33 high in August:
Not every miner is in the same spot
CleanSpark (CLSK), which Keefe Bruyette downgraded in the same note, is down 16% and closest to Cipher. Its one signed data center lease, $6.6 billion over 20 years, is in Georgia, and its Texas sites are still unleased. Bernstein cut its target to $11 from $24 after the race.
TeraWulf’s 6% drop looks harder to justify. Bernstein tied its cut, to $20 from $36, to the election too, but TeraWulf’s leases are in New York and Kentucky. This morning, it said Google will back the financing for its $19 billion Anthropic lease there. MARA Holdings (MARA), with no news of its own, fell 5%.
Riot, up 12%, leased its whole 910-megawatt Corsicana, Texas campus to a frontier AI lab for 15 years. So AI labs are still signing in Texas.
Wait for Cipher’s next lease
I think KBW has this one right. Analysts expect growth beyond 2028 from leases Cipher hasn’t signed, and Texas now has a governor-elect who campaigned on a pause.
Of course, Hinojosa takes office in January, and her plan needs the legislature. Barber Lake’s first rent, due between now and early 2027, is the next number to watch.
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