Key Takeaways
- Blackstone shares rose 6% today after its third-quarter distributable earnings of $1.32 a share beat the $1.26 analysts expected.
- Fundraising and fees carried the quarter, with $63.3 billion of inflows making up for a slow deal market.
- Net realizations fell 34% from a year ago because Blackstone sold fewer assets.
- Management expects realizations to rise significantly in the fourth quarter and base management fees to return to double-digit growth in 2027.
Blackstone (BX) shares rose 6% today, even as the S&P 500 slid, after third-quarter earnings came out ahead of estimates before the open.
Fundraising did the heavy lifting. Chairman and CEO Stephen Schwarzman said in the release that “inflows reached $63 billion, with positive momentum across our major fundraising channels.”
What exactly happened
Here are the numbers that mattered for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026:
- Distributable earnings: $1.32 a share, against a $1.26 consensus (down from $1.52 a year ago)
- Fee-related earnings: $1.6 billion, up 6% from a year ago
- Inflows: $63.3 billion in the quarter and $271.6 billion over the last 12 months
- Net realizations: $332 million, down 34% from a year ago
Schwarzman said on Blackstone’s third-quarter call that inflows over the past 12 months were the highest in four years, which makes the revenue line a little harder to square.
The revenue side was a different story. GAAP revenue slipped to $3.06 billion from $3.09 billion a year earlier and landed under Wall Street’s estimates, while realized performance revenue in private equity (the profits Blackstone books when it sells investments) fell 49%.
Investors have watched this play out for a few years now, with a slow deal market keeping total revenue well below its 2021 peak…
It’s coming back, though: $14.2 billion in 2025, up from $7.68 billion in 2023.
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Management sees the turn coming
Fees are the steadier part of the business, and they’re still growing. Base management fees reached $1.99 billion in the quarter, up 4% from a year ago.
On the call, management said it expects fourth-quarter realizations to rise significantly and base management fees to grow by double digits again in 2027. Schwarzman said Blackstone is “moving towards what we expect will be an outstanding 2027.”
Analysts already expect earnings per share to climb about 25% in 2027…
Today’s beat and management’s outlook for 2027 both support those estimates.
Still cheap by its own standards
Even after today’s jump, the stock trades well below its usual multiple. Blackstone traded at 18x forward earnings at Wednesday’s close, or closer to 19x after today’s move. Its five-year average is 23x.
Blackstone’s rebound depends on deals coming back. Schwarzman said on the call that the higher cost of capital has hurt transaction activity, and that the pressure has carried on since the quarter ended.
My take: with fundraising this strong and the stock trading well below its average multiple, I think Blackstone looks like a buy for investors who can sit through a slow deal market.
The next checkpoint is the fourth-quarter report in late January, which should show whether those realizations (the sales of investments that turn paper gains into cash) actually arrive.
So what is Blackstone stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
