Key Stats for SpaceX Stock
- Price change for SpaceX stock in the last 1 month: -2%
- $SPCX Stock Price as of Oct. 15: $149
- 52-Week High: $226
- $SPCX Stock Price Target: $221
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What Happened?
Barclays thinks Elon Musk could announce a merger between Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) before December.
Analyst Dan Levy sees SpaceX as the more likely buyer in an all-stock deal, and Tesla shareholders would receive SpaceX shares.
Barclays uses market caps of $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla, while Tesla holders would likely get a premium.
Tesla’s annual meeting must take place by December 6. A deal announced just before it, in late October or early November, could make shareholder approval harder, according to Barclays.
Barclays also sees a chance of a deal within six to 12 months.
Musk owns about 48% of SpaceX, which gives him about 82% of its voting power.
His Tesla stake is roughly 20%, or closer to 17% after Barclays’ assumed 45% tax rate on shares vesting in 2028.
At current values, a merger would leave Musk with about 37% of the combined company. He would control about 56% of the votes, and Musk has said he wants to own roughly 25% of Tesla.
Barclays expects the deal to be pitched as an AI play, linking Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard.
Terafab is another driver. Tesla is building a $3 billion research facility in Austin, followed by a $16.8 billion production plant.
Musk has said separate board approvals could take “a while,” and a merger could remove that hurdle.
The financial case is less clear.
Barclays cites Bloomberg consensus showing Tesla generating $12 billion in free cash flow in 2030, while SpaceX is forecast to burn $17 billion.
Both boards and both sets of shareholders would need to approve, and an antitrust review would also be required.
Barclays flagged national security questions too, given SpaceX’s U.S. government contracts and Tesla’s China operations.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About SpaceX Stock
This is a Barclays view, not an announced deal. Still, the idea is gaining traction, and Barclays calls a combination an increasingly consensus expectation.
SpaceX stock also has strong numbers to back it up.
Q2 revenue nearly doubled, and the net loss narrowed by $467 million. Management expects to reach $100 billion in annualized revenue by year-end.
But spending is heavy.
Q2 capital spending was about $18.4 billion, and $15.8 billion of it went to AI compute. That helps explain why funding is a key question for any merger involving SpaceX stock.
For now, SpaceX investors are waiting for an official announcement.
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So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
