Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile shares are down 11% in the past week, mostly on a report that SpaceX may buy EchoStar’s Boost Mobile, as Amazon also moves in.
- A SpaceX-owned carrier would hurt AT&T and Verizon, AST’s US partners, before AST, and push both closer to it.
- AST’s bigger risk is its launch pace, and its Nov. 9 update needs firm dates.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock is down 11% in the past week, most of it on Monday, when The Washington Post reported SpaceX was in talks to buy EchoStar’s Boost Mobile or use its network. That came days after Amazon (AMZN) moved closer to a direct-to-phone service of its own.
With Boost, Starlink could sell phone plans straight to Americans. That would put SpaceX (SPCX) up against AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), the carriers AST sells its coverage through.
SpaceX wants the carriers’ customers
Neither SpaceX nor EchoStar has confirmed a deal. But SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said on the company’s Aug. 4 call that she expects Starlink Mobile to “acquire quite a few” of the big carriers’ customers.
Boost founder Peter Adderton, an AST shareholder since October, went further on X: “AST SpaceMobile needs to pivot, and pivot FAST.”
Amazon is coming too
The FCC approved Amazon’s $11.5 billion Globalstar purchase on Oct. 27, and Chairman Brendan Carr said the deal would bring “even more competition” to direct-to-device service. The purchase still has to close, which is expected in 2027.
AT&T and Verizon have more at stake
A SpaceX-owned Boost would hurt AT&T and Verizon before it hurts AST. AT&T earned 96.9% of its 2025 segment operating income from wireless, and Boost runs partly on capacity it leases from AT&T and T-Mobile. The Post reported that those carriers may need to approve any transfer of Boost’s leases.
Beating SpaceX alone would be hard for the carriers, which makes AST more useful to them, not less. Adderton himself argued the carriers could buy, partner with, or band together around AST. On Monday, AT&T and AST said an Oct. 21 test moved a live connection from AT&T’s ground network to AST’s satellites without a drop, with beta service expected next. Verizon also has a $45 million service prepayment that AST’s latest quarterly filing lists as due.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
The real race is to orbit
AST’s own pace is the bigger worry. Only 12 BlueBirds are up, of the 45 to 60 needed for continuous service, and none has launched since Aug. 5. Management’s target is about 45 in orbit by early 2027. Analysts expect a steep revenue ramp once service starts:
Every delay hands SpaceX and Amazon more time.
Is AST a buy after the drop?
AST traded at 35x forward sales at Monday’s close, well below its five-year average of 60x:
And the $74.68 average analyst target is about double Tuesday’s $37.15 close.
Bottom line: AST looks like a speculative buy, as long as the Nov. 9 update brings firm dates for BlueBirds 14 to 16.
Of course, a signed SpaceX-Boost deal, or another quarter without a launch, would change that.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
