Key Takeaways
- Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% for 2027, and Amgen’s 2026 quarterly dividend of $2.52 a share is 6% higher than a year earlier.
- Amgen’s dividend grew 8.3% a year from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, well ahead of the raise retirees get next year.
- The dividend used 52% of Amgen’s free cash flow over the 12 months to June 30, 2026, which leaves room for more raises.
- Biosimilars cutting into Prolia and XGEVA sales are the main risk, but Amgen raised its 2026 guidance for the third time this year.
Retirees now know their raise for next year. Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is 3.6%, starting with December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January.
That’s a decent bump. But consider a hypothetical retiree who pairs that Social Security check with dividends from Amgen (AMGN). Amgen’s dividend grew 8.3% a year from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, from $6.40 a share to $9.52. This year’s quarterly payment of $2.52 is 6% more than a year ago.
So even at its slower recent pace, Amgen’s check is growing faster than Social Security’s. The question for anyone counting on that check is whether the business can keep it up.
| Metric | Amgen (AMGN) |
|---|---|
| Share price (Nov. 9, 2026 close) | $465.23 |
| Current dividend | $10.08 a year ($2.52 a quarter) |
| Yield at the current rate | 2.2% |
| Dividend growth, fiscal 2020-2025 | 8.3% a year |
| Latest raise (2026 vs. 2025 quarterly rate) | 6% |
| Cash dividend payout ratio (TTM to June 30, 2026) | 52% |
| Net debt / EBITDA (LTM) | 2.28x |
| Social Security COLA, 2027 | 3.6% |
Sources: TIKR, StockAnalysis, Amgen, Social Security Administration.
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The business is paying for the raises
Amgen’s latest quarter gives the dividend a solid base. Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 8% from a year earlier, to $10.4 billion. Non-GAAP EPS rose 14%, from $5.64 to $6.45. The growth came from Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA and Amgen’s biosimilars.
On Nov. 3, Amgen raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year. It now expects revenue of $38.9-$39.7 billion, up from $38.2-$39.4 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $22.90-$23.70, up from $22.30-$23.50. Management also said it doesn’t expect its operating margin to step down in 2027 from 2026’s guidance.
CEO Robert Bradway made the case for both growth and payouts on the third-quarter call: “Our strong financial performance gives us the flexibility to invest in innovation and the capabilities needed to support future growth while delivering attractive returns to shareholders.”
The coverage backs him up. Amgen’s dividend ate up a comfortable 52% of free cash flow over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. That compares with a tighter but still reasonable 63.3% in fiscal 2025 and 46.5% in fiscal 2024. TIKR’s figures show 14 straight fiscal years of higher dividends per share through fiscal 2025.
Amgen’s dividend payments climbed from $3.00 billion in fiscal 2016 to $5.12 billion in fiscal 2025. Over the same years, free cash flow moved between $7.36 billion and $10.6 billion:
Free cash flow is lumpier than the dividend. It fell from $10.4 billion in fiscal 2024 to $8.10 billion in fiscal 2025. Even so, it covered the payout with room to spare in every year shown.
The risk to the check is the older drugs. Prolia and XGEVA sales fell 45% and 47% in the third quarter from a year earlier, as biosimilars launched around the world. Third-quarter free cash flow was $3.7 billion, down from $4.2 billion a year before.
What a cut would cost
Amgen is the only payer here, so its dividend is the one to stress. If Amgen halved its dividend, our retiree’s Amgen income would be cut in half too. If it stopped paying altogether, that income would disappear, and Social Security’s 3.6% would be the only raise left.
Nothing in the figures points that way. Net debt is 2.28x EBITDA, and EBIT covers interest 4.14x. The debt load is still real: $54.0 billion against $13.2 billion of cash at Sept. 30. On Oct. 27, the board declared the same $2.52 for the fourth quarter, payable Dec. 11 to holders of record on Nov. 20. That keeps 2026’s payments steady at the higher rate.
Shares slipped about 2% after hours on Nov. 3, despite the earnings beat and the raised guidance. That’s the market’s call on the stock. The dividend depends on the cash flow, and the guidance raise supports that cash flow.
A raise that outruns the COLA
Amgen’s dividend has outgrown Social Security’s adjustment, and I expect that to continue. Its 6% raise this year is slower than its 8.3% average since fiscal 2020, but it still beats next year’s 3.6%. And with a 52% payout ratio, Amgen has room to keep raising.
The trade-off is the starting check. A 2.2% yield isn’t much on its own, so this is a dividend you hold for its growth more than its size.
For a retiree, that’s the kind of check I’d want next to Social Security: safe and still growing. The next raise is the number to watch. If Prolia and XGEVA keep shrinking faster than the newer drugs grow, that raise could come in closer to the COLA.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
