Key Takeaways
- OpenAI’s third-quarter revenue rose nearly 50% to $10 billion, but its adjusted operating loss reached $10.9 billion, about the $11 billion it raised on Nov. 6.
- AMD has a lot riding on OpenAI’s ability to keep raising money, since OpenAI has agreed to take up to 6 gigawatts of its Instinct GPUs.
- Analysts expect AMD’s revenue to climb 84% to $95.9 billion in 2027, and much of that rests on gigawatt-scale shipments.
- AMD’s fourth-quarter report, expected in early February, is the next big test of whether those shipments are on track.
OpenAI’s revenue jumped nearly 50% last quarter, and it still lost more money than it brought in. Few companies have more riding on whether it can keep raising cash to cover that gap than Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
OpenAI has agreed to take up to 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct GPUs. That’s a lot of chips for a customer that still needs outside money to fund its losses.
OpenAI’s Blockbuster Quarter Came With a Bigger Bill
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said this week that third-quarter revenue rose nearly 50% from the second quarter to $10 billion, an annual run rate of roughly $50 billion. “Our enterprise business doubled quarter over quarter,” she said.
Costs grew too. OpenAI’s adjusted operating loss widened to $10.9 billion from $10.1 billion in the second quarter, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Bloomberg reported that investors wired OpenAI $11 billion on Nov. 6, the first close of a new round and about as much as the quarter’s loss. As Ed Zitron pointed out on X, the question is whether it will “have to raise again” soon.
AMD’s 2027 Rides on Those Gigawatts Shipping
Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon summed up the stakes on this week’s Closing Bell: “AMD is effectively guiding for their server revenues next year to double and their GPU revenues to almost triple.”
Most of that GPU growth depends on Helios, AMD’s first rack-scale system, shipping at gigawatt scale. OpenAI and Meta have each agreed to take up to 6 gigawatts, and Anthropic up to 2. On AMD’s second-quarter call, Lisa Su said each gigawatt brings in “double-digit billions” of revenue.
Consensus already has AMD’s revenue climbing 84% in 2027:
That’s $43.7 billion of new revenue in a single year. Oppenheimer’s upgrade assumes about 3 gigawatts ship in 2027 across all customers. At $10 billion each, the low end of “double-digit billions,” that’s $30 billion, close to a third of the $95.9 billion analysts expect for 2027.
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Meta and Anthropic Spread AMD’s Risk, but Only So Far
Meta has a binding commitment for its first gigawatt, and Anthropic adds up to 2 more. Meta is stretching too: its third-quarter capex of $34.9 billion came in above its $32.8 billion of operating cash flow. Unlike OpenAI, though, Meta ended September with $82.45 billion of cash and marketable securities, so it doesn’t need a new round to keep buying.
The warrants soften the downside. OpenAI and Meta each hold warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01, vesting only as they buy, and OpenAI’s last tranche also needs a $600 share price. AMD’s diluted share count has barely moved over the last eight quarters:
At 1.66 billion shares, OpenAI’s full warrant would add 9.6%, and both together about 19%. If OpenAI’s purchases slip, that dilution slips with them. So does the revenue AMD is counting on.
AMD’s February Report Is the Next Big Test
Lisa Su said on AMD’s third-quarter call that “demand is higher than supply,” and the low end of the fourth-quarter guide is $16.49 billion. The February report will show how much Helios volume stepped up. OpenAI’s first warrant tranche vests once its first gigawatt is delivered, with share-price conditions attached.
Demand isn’t what worries me. OpenAI’s ability to keep paying for its chips is. Its adjusted operating loss roughly matched its latest funding close. That isn’t cash burn, but it shows how far revenue trails costs. If February shows OpenAI’s deployment on track, that worry shrinks, especially if its enterprise business keeps doubling. If AMD flags a delay, I’d want a bigger discount before buying AMD stock.
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