Key Takeaways
- NVIDIA shares fell 4% on Monday after its board opened an independent investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort.
- Dan Ives and Gene Munster think the stock would be 20% to 30% lower without Huang, but put the odds he leaves at 10% to 15%.
- Weighted by those odds, the hit is roughly 2% to 4.5% of NVIDIA’s value, less than two days of selling have already taken off.
- The bigger risk is to earnings estimates if export scrutiny tightens, and NVIDIA reports on Nov. 17.
NVIDIA (NVDA) shares fell 4% on Monday after its board opened an independent investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. On Sunday, Huang told staff he had been unfaithful to his wife. The New York Times has reported on his relationship with a former executive at Megaspeed, an NVIDIA customer. Shares slid again on Tuesday.
Asked on Tuesday’s Pivot how big the fallout could be, Scott Galloway didn’t hold back: “AI tonight, as we sit here, is hanging on by a leather jacket.”
It’s a great line. The analysts putting numbers on an NVIDIA without Huang are a lot calmer.
Weight NVIDIA’s Hit by the Odds
Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. posted on X on Tuesday: “We believe if Jensen was removed as CEO, Nvidia is worth a lot less (25%-30%) as a company/stock.” He put the chance of removal at about 15%.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management lands close by. On Tuesday’s RiskReversal Pod, he said his partners’ “general sense is probably around down around 20% if that would happen,” and that the stock had “factored in maybe a 25% chance.” His own odds: “more like a 10 or 15% chance.”
Multiply them out. A 25% to 30% hit at 15% odds costs 3.75% to 4.5% of NVIDIA’s value. A 20% hit at 10% to 15% odds costs 2% to 3%. Two days of selling have already taken off more than that, which suggests most of the departure risk is in the price, though nobody can say exactly how much.
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NVIDIA Was Already Cheap
Hold analysts’ estimates where they are, and NVIDIA’s earnings still climb fast. Consensus normalized EPS rises from $9.32 in the year ending January 2027 to $21.41 in the year ending January 2029:
On Monday, investors paid just 14.8x forward earnings for that, NVIDIA’s lowest multiple in three years and less than half its 30.1x average:
Estimates Could Take the Hit Too
The probe’s questions reach past management. Three House committee chairs have asked Huang for a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18 about his contacts with the former Megaspeed executive and how NVIDIA guards against spies. If that scrutiny leads to tighter export rules, it could reach sales already in the forecasts. Customers headquartered outside the US brought in 31% of revenue in the year ended January 2026, though headquarters don’t always show where chips ship or end up. NVIDIA already assumes no data center compute revenue from China in its outlook. If new restrictions cut into forecast sales, analysts would trim EPS estimates, not just the multiple.
Without Jensen, NVIDIA Is a 10x-12x Stock
Take 20% to 30% off and hold today’s estimates, and NVIDIA would trade at roughly 10x to 12x forward earnings. Some of that discount is uncertainty about who comes next, not proof that nobody can follow Huang. On Monday’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer said he isn’t anxious to sell: “People learned that lesson when they dumped Apple after Steve Jobs died.”
Most of the chance Huang leaves looks priced in already. The stock’s next big move turns on whether the estimates hold, and the first test is Nov. 17, when NVIDIA reports against guidance of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. The board hasn’t set a date to finish its probe, though, and what it finds could move the odds faster than any earnings report.
So What Is NVIDIA Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
