Key Takeaways
- Affirm shares fell 8% today with no company news, ahead of its fiscal first-quarter report.
- Fintechs and chip stocks also slid as investors dumped riskier stocks after Democrats’ midterm wins.
- Going into the report, analysts expected Affirm’s fiscal 2027 revenue to reach $5.49 billion.
- Tonight’s credit figures matter most: delinquencies at or under last year’s 2.8% would make the drop look overdone.
Affirm (AFRM) fell 8% today, ahead of its fiscal first-quarter results after the close.
The S&P 500 fell 4% and the Nasdaq-100 6% as the post-midterm rally faded, and retail-facing fintechs took some of the worst of it.
Nothing changed at Affirm today
Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and buy-now-pay-later lending has drawn lawmakers’ scrutiny. I think tighter consumer-credit rules are the risk investors priced in today.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) fell 8%, just as hard, though its own credit is improving. On Oct. 27, it reported third-quarter adjusted net revenue up 44% to $1.4 billion and said its annualized personal loan charge-off rate fell 34 basis points from a year earlier, to 2.26%.
The chip selling ran deeper
Ciena (CIEN) fell 15% with AI-networking stocks as investors weighed a slower data-center build-out after the election. Taiwan’s chipmakers fell further: ASE Technology (ASX) dropped 21%, and United Microelectronics (UMC) fell 17% even though UMC said this morning that October revenue rose 18.33% from a year earlier.
TIKR tracks 36 analysts on Affirm. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Affirm, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Affirm’s Analyst Ratings
What Affirm has to show tonight
Going into tonight, analysts expected Affirm’s revenue to keep climbing, from $4.26 billion in fiscal 2026 (the year to June) to $6.85 billion in fiscal 2028.
Nothing in today’s selling gives analysts a reason to cut those estimates.
Management guided to quarterly GMV of $13.7-$14.0 billion and a GAAP operating margin of 11.5%-13.5%.
Credit is the bigger test. Upstart cut its outlook on Nov. 3, citing worse consumer credit and higher rates. Affirm’s 30-day delinquency rate on monthly loans was 2.5% at June 30 and usually rises in the September quarter; a year ago, that quarter’s rate was 2.8%.
GMV growth has to hold up too, after a miss on that measure sank Shopify, a key Affirm partner, 15%.
Before today, Affirm traded at about 19x forward earnings, below its 28x average since its forward P/E turned positive in September 2024, and lower still after today’s drop.
If delinquencies come in at or under 2.8% and the margin lands in its range, today’s drop looks like a buying chance. A jump in delinquencies would point to something worse.
So what is Affirm stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
