Key Takeaways
- Darsana Capital Partners, a $22 billion fund, made SpaceX, Amazon and HCA Healthcare its three biggest new or added positions in its latest 13F, for the quarter ended June 30.
- SpaceX alone was nearly 78% of its 13F stocks, and analysts’ average target sits 84% above the latest close, even with the stock down 19% since June 30.
- HCA is up 28% since June 30 and already trades above analysts’ average target.
- Amazon is the one the numbers back best, with AWS growing at its fastest pace in five years, rising targets and a forward P/E near its lowest in more than a decade.
One stock made up nearly 78% of the stocks Darsana Capital Partners, a $22 billion fund, reported on its 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 14 and still its latest filing: SpaceX (SPCX). Its next two biggest new or added positions were Amazon (AMZN) and HCA Healthcare (HCA).
Nearly everything rides on SpaceX
Darsana held 101.46 million SpaceX shares worth $17.34 billion on June 30. SpaceX only listed in June, and a 13F leaves out private shares, so the filing can’t show whether Darsana bought in the IPO, after it, or held its stake from before the listing. Either way, the stock is down 19% since June 30 and sits 38% below its 52-week high.
The business has moved faster than the stock. Third-quarter revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion as SpaceX rented out more data-center compute to other AI companies. The 40 analysts covering it have more than doubled their average target since it listed, from $114 to $256, which is 84% above the latest close:
That compute doesn’t come cheap. SpaceX guided to $35 billion to $40 billion of capital spending in the fourth quarter alone. And at about 46x forward earnings, the stock already prices in a lot of growth, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.17 a share this year and $2.74 next year.
TIKR tracks 40 analysts on SpaceX. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
Amazon’s targets keep climbing
Darsana’s 2.50 million Amazon shares were worth $596 million on June 30, or 2.7% of its 13F stocks, and the stock is up 12% since then. Since then, AWS grew 39% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in five years.
Analysts have kept raising their sights. The average target among the 62 analysts covering Amazon has gone from $293 a year ago to $326, 22% above the latest close:
And at 27x forward earnings, the stock trades near its lowest quarter-end multiple since at least 2014. Investors are paying less for each dollar of expected earnings than at almost any point in that stretch, while the cloud business speeds up.
HCA has already passed the Street’s target
Darsana has held HCA for at least two years. It added 47% more shares in the second quarter, bringing its stake to 1.10 million shares worth $429 million on June 30, or 1.9% of its 13F stocks. The stock is up 28% since June 30. Since then, HCA reported third-quarter revenue up 3.6% to $19.85 billion. It said it now expects full-year results in the upper half of its guidance ranges, despite a shift in payer mix that it estimates cost about $400 million of pre-tax income in the quarter.
That leaves little on the table for a new buyer. The 26 analysts covering HCA have an average target of $483, 3% below the latest close. That target is up from $478 a year ago and down from a peak of $543 in March:
At about 16x forward earnings, HCA is far cheaper than the other two. But the Street doesn’t see it climbing much from here.
Amazon is the pick
If I could only buy one of the three right now, it’d be Amazon: a business that’s speeding up, at a multiple near its lowest in over a decade. SpaceX has the most upside on paper. But with analysts’ targets spread from $70 to $800, nobody agrees on what its data centers will earn.
The risk with Amazon is the cash. Management expects about $220 billion of capital spending this year, and analysts don’t see free cash flow turning positive until 2028. A 2027 spending outlook well above the $278 billion analysts expect, due with fourth-quarter results in early February, would push that turn out further. Darsana’s own next 13F, for the quarter ended Sept. 30, is due by Nov. 16, and it will show whether the fund still held SpaceX on that date.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
